Category: Markets

59 posts categorized as "Markets"


It’s Visibility—Not Uncertainty

The outbreak of the coronavirus (COVID-19) continues to shake the financial markets, with major stock indices dropping into correction territory. (As of Thursday’s close, the S&P 500 was off 12% from its Feb. 19 peak.) While some observers want to chalk it up to “uncertainty” I beg to differ. This problem has more to do…

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Keeping the Coronavirus in Perspective

The major indices are clearly taking the coronavirus more seriously now, with the S&P 500 selling off by 3.4% on Monday, after seemingly ignoring the threat previously as the indices marched to new high after new high. The virus, known as COVID-19, has proven more difficult to contain than previous health scares such as SARS….

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Rob Stein joins hosts Jeffrey Sherman and Sam Lau on the Sherman Show Podcast discussing MACRO +MARKETS + NOWCASTING!

On the Sherman Show, Rob Stein, CEO of Astor Investment Management discusses his proprietary Astor Economic Index, designed to give a “now-cast” of the U.S. economy and used by the Astor team to set portfolio asset allocations. Rather than relying on economic forecasts, Rob and his team use contemporaneous reads of jobs, output and other…

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February Update on the U.S. Economy

The Astor Economic Index improved to slightly above average economic growth in January, buoyed by consistent jobs growth and a return to expansion in the manufacturing sector. U.S. payrolls increased by a solid 225,000 in January, supporting the notion of a durable expansion and labor market. The unemployment rate was essentially unchanged at 3.6%, and…

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Astor’s 2020 Outlook

Click here to read Astor’s Outlook for 2020. Founder and CEO, Rob Stein, looks back at 2019 in the markets, as well as what could be in store for 2020.  

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January Update on the U.S. Economy

This month we’ll take the opportunity to look back at both 2019 and the data as they stand at year end. It will come as no surprise to prior readers of this blog that the data has moderated substantially throughout the year, but in aggregate the current economic situation for the U.S. (and increasingly, abroad)…

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Navigating Market Uncertainty With Economic Data And ETFs

JANUARY 10, 2020 – BILL HORTZ – Uncertainty & fears of recession have many advisors and RIAs climbing a wall of worry as markets continue to reach new highs – How do you navigate this environment? – Astor Investment Management LLC explains their macro strategy, proprietary index and offers to share research. [We are in…

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Protected: Astor Conference Call

There is no excerpt because this is a protected post.

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The Brain, Heart and Soul of Astor Investment Management

As the CEO and founder of Astor, I am often associated with its success. But just like a living organism is more than a face, so is a firm. It has a brain, a heart, and a soul—all of which are needed to stay alive and thrive. Reflecting on the year, which marks more than $2.6…

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December Update on the U.S. Economy

The Astor Economic Index moved upwards in November, its first month-end improvement in half a year and broadly consistent with a U.S. economy growing at about trend. As we’ve noted in prior months, the durability of this stage of the expansion has been solidly on the back of consumers. As a result, labor market indicators…

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Remembering Paul Volcker, My “Boss”

While I am known for being the author of Inside Greenspan’s Briefcase: Investment Strategies for Profiting from Key Reports & Data (McGraw-Hill, 2002), my career began under the tutelage of another Fed Chairman: Paul Volcker, who passed away on Sunday, December 8, 2019 at the age of 92. In 1984-1985, as a project analyst for…

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Rob Stein Discusses Unemployment Rate on TDA Network’s Morning Trade Live – December 6, 2019

Watch Astor’s CEO and Founder, Rob Stein, on TDA Network’s, Morning Trade Live with Oliver Renick,  as they discuss the current unemployment rate.   Click the image above or click here to watch the video! All information contained herein is for informational purposes only. This is not a solicitation to offer investment advice or services…

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What’s Really Behind the New Highs

We entered the last month of the decade with the major stock market indices at new highs: the Dow closing over 28,000, the S&P 500 over 3100, and the Nasdaq Composite over 8600. While market pundits searched for reasons for the euphoria—from expectations of a China trade deal to fading fears of a near-term recession—the…

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November Update on the U.S. Economy

The Astor Economic Index, our proprietary nowcast of the U.S. economy has remained somewhat range bound for the past several months, and printed again this month at a level consistent with slightly below average domestic economic growth. We delve into some of the recent drivers of the AEI below. The Labor Market and Manufacturing In…

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October Update on the U.S. Economy

Our proprietary Astor Economic Index® deteriorated somewhat last month and is showing slightly below average growth in the U.S. economy.   Labor Market The labor market is the strongest thing going for the U.S. economy.  While the pace of jobs growth has slowed meaningfully since last year at this time, it’s important to recognize that…

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September Update on the U.S. Economy

Recent Economic Data Our proprietary Astor Economic Index® was slightly changed last month and remains consistent with average economic growth in the U.S. In aggregate, economic data points towards a weakening but durable expansion.  The ISM Purchasing Manufacturers Index headed into contraction territory at 49.1, down from 51.2 last month and the lowest reading since…

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August Update on the U.S. Economy

Our proprietary Astor Economic Index® deteriorated slightly last month and is showing about average growth in the U.S. economy. Labor Market My interpretation is that the labor market is slowing somewhat and in the next few years, we will not enjoy the regular robust gains we have seen since the Global Financial Crisis. For example,…

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Rob Stein Discusses Fed Rate Cut on TDA Network’s Market on Close – July 31, 2019

Watch Astor’s CEO and Founder, Rob Stein, on TDA Network’s, Market on Close,  as he discusses the FOMC announcement and  Jerome Powell’s press conference.   Click the image above or click here to watch the video! All information contained herein is for informational purposes only. This is not a solicitation to offer investment advice or services in any…

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Q2 in Review: Eyes on the Fed’s “Medicine”

  Q2 ended with a continuation of the 2019 rally, marking one of the best half-years in recent memory. That said, at of the close of Q2, the broad U.S. equity market was roughly 8% higher from one year ago. Given how far the market traveled in that 12-month period, a 8% gain is no…

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Understanding the Recent Decline in the Astor Economic Index®

2019 has seen a marked deterioration in the Astor Economic Index® (the AEI) from levels we associate with strong growth to levels which we see as more representative of average growth.  This long-term chart of the AEI shows that while not unprecedented, the sharp decline in the AEI over the last few months is unusual….

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All information contained herein is for informational purposes only. This is not a solicitation to offer investment advice or services in any state where to do so would be unlawful. Analysis and research are provided for informational purposes only, not for trading or investing purposes. All opinions expressed are as of the date of publication and subject to change. Astor and its affiliates are not liable for the accuracy, usefulness or availability of any such information or liable for any trading or investing based on such information. Please refer to Astor’s Form ADV Part 2 for additional information regarding fees, risks and services.