105 posts categorized as "Media"
As usual, we’ll be looking at recent economic data this month, but we’ll also expand on some of the themes we’ve seen this year and look ahead to our base case for 2022. It’s worth noting that our portfolio decisions are made by the current state of the U.S. economy, rather than any forecast, but…
Rob Stein, Former Federal Reserve Analyst and CEO/Founder of Astor Investment Management discusses his views on potential unintended, permanent economic outcomes from the pandemic, super inflation and what investors can expect over the next 1-5 years.
Astor Chief Investment Officer John Eckstein and Nick Porter wade into the numbers of the economic rebound and the pace to return to pre-pandemic levels. The road back seems to be a long one, but they explore where encouraging signs can be found. AIM-8/19/21-OP442
Astor CIO John Eckstein and Nick Porter eyeball the latest numbers from from labor, housing and industry. Is the economy still booming or did June produce a swoon that will affect the outcomes moving forward? AIM-8/2/21-OP429
As the millennial generation starts to turn 40, Astor CEO Rob Stein discusses the ramifications with Angela Miles on Business First AM. Will they be able to retire early? Will they need to work well past the age of 65? Rob shares his insights on what it means for the markets and the long term….
This week Astor CIO John Eckstein and Nick Porter translate the latest numbers and how they are impacting the American economy’s comeback from the COVID-19 pandemic’s setbacks. The real question: Why isn’t the rebound as robust as hoped for or expected? Approved with code AIM-7/26/21-OP417
Recording of Astor’s Q2 2021 Strategy Update call with CEO & Founder, Rob Stein.
The Astor Economic Index® (“AEI”) improved once again in the month of May, ticking up to a post-pandemic high, and nearing levels last seen in 2019. The reading is consistent with the general macroeconomic narrative of the U.S. economy, with flush households, strong demand and burgeoning external support. Although GDP growth seems to be on…
Let’s look back on a historic, discretionary macro trade: In September 1992, the British pound was fixed to the Deutschemark through the European Exchange Rate Mechanism (ERM), a precursor to the Euro we know today. If you tried to sell pounds below a certain level, the Bank of England (the central bank of the UK)…
Inflation itself is not a rally-killer for stocks. Rather, I believe it is the interest rate differential between a risk-free return against the risk on stock prices and dividend yield. I think that spread has favored stocks for some time and very aggressively for the past 12 months. As rates rise and stocks appreciate, I…
Case Study: Economic Fundamentals and Mid-Recovery Slowdowns The U.S. is amid a historic recovery, with U.S. GDP expanding at an eyewatering 4.3% (Q/Q SAAR) in Q4 2020 and 6.4% (advance number) in Q1 2021. While the loosening of COVID-19 restrictions, substantial fiscal stimulus, and loose monetary policy have contributed to a substantially sunnier economic outlook…
The Astor Economic Index® (“AEI”) improved slightly month over month and remains at a level indicative of strong fundamentals, reflecting very strong output measures across the U.S. economy, as well as declining jobless claim figures. The dip in the AEI from the second wave earlier this year has been mostly retraced as the U.S. recovers…
Macroeconomic data has teased us for several months with the hope of a new spring, and the month of March has aptly enough delivered on that promise. Much of the nation has substantially eased lockdown restrictions as the pace of vaccinations pick up pace, and the near-term trajectory of the U.S. economy is on substantially…
No news is good news, at least as the U.S. economy is concerned in its current state of slowly animating suspension. The Astor Economic Index has been range bound at a level approximating above average growth for several months and ended the month of February essentially unchanged. The labor market picked up some steam, with…
The theme in economic pundit circles during the month of January was short-term stagnation, and the Astor Economic Index certainly agrees, remaining essentially unchanged from where in began the year and in growth territory. As in prior months, the economy remains under substantial restrictions that are trending broadly towards easing, and we expect to see…
2020 is destined to become one of those years that will be remembered just by mentioning two digits, much like ’87, ’01, and ’08 have become synonymous with the events of each respective year. All someone will need to say is “remember ’20,” and we’ll know everything that number entails—from the pandemic to the presidency,…
With COVID-19 still spreading throughout the United States, the Astor Economic Index continued its weakening trend in the month of December, ending the quarter down from its peak several months ago but still well into solid growth territory. This month’s non-farm payroll came in about as expected with a loss of 140,000 jobs month over…