Category: Commentary/Video
178 posts categorized as "Commentary/Video"
22Jan
January 2021 Update on the U.S. Economy
With COVID-19 still spreading throughout the United States, the Astor Economic Index continued its weakening trend in the month of December, ending the quarter down from its peak several months ago but still well into solid growth territory. This month’s non-farm payroll came in about as expected with a loss of 140,000 jobs month over…
4Jan
2020 in Retrospect
Coming into 2020 the U.S. economy, as we measure it with the Astor Economic Index®, was growing about trend, though weaker than the pace of 2018. The U.S. consumer was the true pillar, with the unemployment rate sitting at 3.5%. U.S. Manufacturing had peaked in the second half of 2018, declining steadily through 2019 as…
18Dec
December 2020 Update on the U.S. Economy
As we have said before in this blog, as goes the pandemic, so goes the U.S. economy. The Astor Economic Index reflects this reality, ticking down in November from its 2020 highs, although still in solid growth territory. In November we noted that the impact of the second wave of COVID-19 and concomitant lockdowns would…
20Nov
Three Things That Will Matter in 2021
With the election behind us and increased visibility of life after the pandemic, I’ve had time to reflect on the economy, the markets and the impact of responses to the economic shut down. Economists often get stuck in the theoretical or the academic reasons for market movements and economies cycles, often missing “the forest for…
18Nov
Market Cap Trends – Q4 2020
• Mega cap stocks have driven domestic stock market performance, by in large, in 2020. Might that be changing? • Recent trends have seen changes in market segment performance such as small cap and value index performance • Visibility into a COVID-19 vaccine may support a broader benefit for stocks, not just a few concentrated…
17Nov
November 2020 Update on the U.S. Economy
The Astor Economic Index® (“AEI”) improved again in October, ending the month higher once again and at a level generally consistent with a strong economic state. Recall that the AEI is driven by changes in economic output, rather than the outright level, which we believe is more germane to the near-term trajectory for risk assets….
21Oct
Rob Stein Q3 2020
Recording of Astor’s Q3 2020 call, where CEO/Founder, Rob Stein discusses the current economic environment, gives an update on Astor’s portfolios, and holds Q&A. AIM-10/21/20-OP194
14Oct
Q3 2020 Economic Update
This year has had no shortage of twists and turns and the third quarter of 2020 has been no different. The end of Q3 provides an opportunity to look back at the path of the Astor Economic Index® (“AEI”) and our flagship Dynamic Allocation (“ADA”) strategy over the course of the past three months in…
10Sep
September 2020 Update on the U.S. Economy
With COVID-19 largely on the decline across the United States, and much of the economy returning to some semblance of normal, we have begun to see the rough outlines of the economic shutdown’s long-term impacts and implications for recovery. This blog has previously questioned the extent to which the shutdown would have persistent effects on…
13Aug
August 2020 Update on the U.S. Economy
The Astor Economic Index® has had a substantial improvement since the previous nonfarm payrolls report and is now at a level consistent with about average U.S. economic strength. Remarkably, this reading coincides with the AEI’s pre-COVID levels. As the chart below depicts, the AEI has effectively captured the twists and turns of the economy during…
31Jul
Rob Stein Q2 2020
Recording of Astor’s Q2 2020 call, where CEO/Founder, Rob Stein discusses the current economic environment, gives an update on Astor’s portfolios, and holds Q&A.
14Jul
July 2020 Update on the U.S. Economy
As the pandemic goes, so goes the United States’ economy. To the extent that public health measures move in lockstep with the pace of COVID-19, this month’s data reflects that reality. With restrictions easing in most states, macroeconomic fundamentals have improved accordingly. Of course, as epidemiological data shows, the pandemic is far from having run…
12Jun
June 2020 Update on the U.S. Economy
On balance, the macroeconomic data released last month indicate a turning point in the rate of change of economic trends resulting from the pandemic. In some instances, data suggest an outright reversal in the underlying trend. Accordingly, the Astor Economic Index (AEI) stabilized this month at a level historically consistent with poor macroeconomic fundamentals after…
27May
Rob Stein, CEO of Astor Investment Management on Government Spending and the Uncertainty in the Market in 2020 on Business First AM with Angela Miles
Watch Astor’s CEO and Founder, Rob Stein, on Economy Watch as he discusses government spending and the uncertainity in the market in 2020. AIM-6/29/20-VP75 The Astor Economic Index® is a proprietary index created by Astor Investment Management LLC. It represents an aggregation of various economic data points: including output and employment indicators. The Astor Economic…
20May
May 2020 Update on the U.S. Economy
As expected, April brought new lows in the data we monitor, and with it our first full view of the economic impact of the pandemic. In many cases, the data are historical and record breaking. However, several green shoots have begun to emerge, although it is much too early to call the beginning of the…
21Apr
Protected: Rob Stein’s Q1 2020 ZOOM Meeting (For password, please email info@astorim.com)
There is no excerpt because this is a protected post.
20Apr
Letter to Investors: Brief Update on Astor Strategies
For A PDF Version of the Letter: Letter to Investors_April 2020 Dear Investors: On March 10th, I published my first ‘Letter to Investors’ of 2020. The U.S. and Global economies continue to change rapidly as the impact of COVID-19 ripples across the globe. At Astor, our job is to assess the amount of risk in…
13Apr
April 2020 Update on the U.S. Economy
As the pandemic and response escalated last month, we left this blog with several crucial watch points for the weeks ahead. In the intervening period we’ve begun to receive some early answers to the queries we posed regarding the trajectory of the disease and the U.S. economy, although much remains uncertain. The economic impact of…
23Mar
What Now? How about a plan……
Click here for PDF version The markets and the economy have taken an unprecedented hit. The size and speed of the downturn are like nothing we’ve witnessed before. There was little anyone could have done unless they were prepared beforehand. Even a portfolio like our flagship Astor Dynamic Allocation, which prior to this crisis had…
20Mar
Protected: Rob Stein: Current Economic Environment (e-mail info@astorim.com for password)
There is no excerpt because this is a protected post.