Category: Commentary/Video

245 posts categorized as "Commentary/Video"

15Aug

Latest inflation news and the outlook for the Fed

Astor’s CIO, John Eckstein, and research associate, Nick Porter, deep dive into the latest inflation news and the outlook for the Fed.

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9Aug

Gauging the U.S. Consumer

Employment has been resilient to inflation, rising rates and slowing growth trends, but for how much longer? Consumer financial situations have been impacted, reducing savings rates and increasing borrowing levels… Factors to help the economy regain its footing may not be helpful for the U.S. consumer in the near term… For context, let’s quickly walk…

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8Aug

What does the latest payroll report tell us about inflation and the fed?

Astor’s CEO, Rob Stein, and CIO, John Eckstein, discuss the latest payroll report and what it tells us about inflation and the fed.

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3Aug

Exchange Rate Drivers

Recent Dollar Trends The U.S. dollar is very much in the limelight of late, with the greenback relentlessly climbing against its developed market peers. The euro to dollar exchange rate (EUR/USD) is closely watched as a gauge of global sentiment and is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world. The euro recently touched…

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25Jul

Fed preview and inflation outlook

Federal Reserve preview and inflation outlook with CIO, John Eckstein, and Research Associate, Nick Porter.

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15Jul

July 2022 Update on the U.S. Economy

The U.S. economy is at an interesting crossroad: the labor market is showing continued strength despite weakening output, burgeoning inflation, and an increasingly hawkish Fed. The Astor Economic Index has taken the side of the naysayers, posting consecutive declines for the last 11 months. The index now lies somewhere in the below-average to weak range….

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11Jul

Is The Market Showing Signs of A Recession?

Astor’s CEO, Rob Stein, and CIO, John Eckstein, break down the latest employment report looking for signs of the recession everyone is talking about.

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8Jul

You Can’t Buy Love and You Can’t Buy An Expansion

As the markets hit that magical percent drawdown number, market experts tell us we are in a bear market. If only they told us sooner… Inflation was not transitory after all, and the Fed needed to react which led to the typical result from raising rates quickly… Again, who could predict that mailing money to…

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1Jul

Is a recession coming?

Astor’s CIO, John Eckstein, and Research Associate, Nick Porter, discuss if a recession is on its way using the latest economic data.

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11Jun

Federal Reserve outlook given yesterday’s inflation numbers

Astor’s CIO, John Eckstein, and Research Associate, Nick Porter, discuss the Fed’s outlook after yesterday’s inflation numbers.

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8Jun

June 2022 Update on the U.S. Economy

The Astor Economic Index crossed the Rubicon (or perhaps just the Delaware) in May, ending the month just below the 0 line and at a level consistent with (barely) below average economic growth.  Note that the AEI is suggesting that the pace of growth in the US has slowed, but is not yet at a…

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1Jun

Is a recession likely?

Astor’s CIO, John Eckstein, and Research Associate, Nick Porter break down the latest economic data to help them decide whether or not a recession is likely to occur.

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19May

Market Commentary: Super-Hyper Inflation, So What’s the Plan?

Wednesday (5/18) was a day of turmoil in equity markets with the S&P 500 down about 4% as investors sold risk assets for the safety of government bonds. I personally wouldn’t jump into bonds for the long term at this point, but yesterday investors needed to do something and bonds were the easiest choice. Markets…

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15May

Stock Market Tantrums

Astor’s CEO, Rob Stein, and CIO, John Eckstein, discuss changes in labor market, updates on the Fed, and recent stock market tantrums.

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12May

Market Commentary: It’s all about the Fed… Still

The markets have had a challenging time the past few weeks, quickly retracing back to the levels of a year ago. Perspective is always important, but the Fed’s perspective is essential!  As I said at the beginning of the year, it’s all about the Fed and how they navigate interest rates.  The Fed got it wrong when…

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29Apr

Breaking down the latest GDP report and the outlook for the Fed in this week’s Astor Economic Week in Review

CIO, John Eckstein, and Research Partner, Nick Porter, dive deep into the latest GDP report and outlook for the Fed.

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18Apr

The Strength of the Economy at the start of Q2

CIO, John Eckstein, and Research Associate, Nick Porter, discuss Inflation, CPI, PPI Final Demand, and the Fed. AIM-4/18/22-OP560

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7Apr

April 2022 Update on the U.S. Economy

The Astor Economic Index continued its slide in March, consistent with our reading of a cooling but still strong economy. The domestic macroeconomic outlook is at an interesting crossroads, with persistent inflation, negative real wages, and high input costs on one hand, and very strong labor market dynamics, corporate earnings, and solid output growth on…

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5Apr

Employment Report Discussion

Discussion Topics: Overall Strength of Economy Jobs Report Fed Moves AIM-4/4/22-OP554

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4Apr

Commodity Market Update – Q1 2022

Many of the most visible commodities – energies and grains – appreciated a great deal during the first quarter as shown in the charts below for eight of the more well known commodity contracts.   There are macro factors both boosting and restraining commodity prices: On the bullish for commodities side: Shift in the composition…

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