Category: Commentary/Video
280 posts categorized as "Commentary/Video"
15Sep
September 2023 Update on the U.S. Economy
The U.S. economy remained around potential in August, with softer labor market prints pointing to lower momentum in hiring against the backdrop of a secularly tight labor market. The Astor Economic Index® has ticked up slightly, but remains range bound in the average to below average economic growth. As we’ve said in the past,…
1Sep
INSIGHTS: Economic Crystall Balls – Comparing Four Recession Forecasting Tools
If I tell a stranger, you are an economist the first thing you notice is the glassy look in their eyes. The second thing that happens is that they ask you what will happen to the stock market. Economists don’t know! We can echo Pierpont Morgan and say, “I expect it to fluctuate”, but beyond…
20Aug
INSIGHTS: Interest Rates & Fed Minutes: August 2023
Fed minutes from last month’s meeting were released on Wednesday (8/16). After a summer of disinflation, many were hoping for a policy narrative congruent with the downward price movement we’ve seen in 2023: something akin to a final act. While there were a few dovish dissenters that were reluctant to raise the target rate, the…
11Aug
August 2023 Update on the U.S. Economy
The U.S. economic picture has been essentially unchanged for the past few months, with a general trend towards disinflation, growth returning towards potential, and a secularly tight but slowing labor market. The Astor Economic Index® agrees with this narrative, ending the month of July at a level consistent with below potential output, driven mostly by…
8Aug
Payroll Pulse – Navigating the Economy
Astor Investment Management’s CEO, Rob Stein and CIO, John Eckstein discuss the payroll pulse and navigating the economy. Listen now! Episode 126 MAS-M-413594-2023-08-08
20Jul
Economic Kaleidoscope: Unveiling Super Insight into the Economy
Astor Investment Management’s, CIO John Eckstein along with John Davi, CEO Astoria Portfolio Advisors discuss the economic kaleidoscope! Listen now! Episode 125 MAS-M-403727-2023-07-17
20Jul
July 2023 Update on the U.S. Economy
In our view, the U.S. economy is well on its way to cooling to its pre-pandemic potential, and a soft landing (with stable payrolls and slightly above average inflation) is more likely today than in the recent past. Refraining from over extrapolating any given data point will be important going forward – the economy, and…
20Jun
June 2023 Update on the U.S. Economy
The U.S. economy has continued its normalization over the past month, with key measures of output and labor moving towards the pre-pandemic trend. For the pessimistic, there are plenty of cracks in the data to support a narrative of underlying weakness, but the overall picture is one of robust demand and gradual cooling. The The…
5Jun
Tune in for A Succinct Rundown of the Latest in Inflation Trends and Economic Growth
Astor’s CIO John Eckstein and Portfolio Manager/Vice President – Research, Nick Porter provide insights on inflation trends and economic growth. MAS-M-388004-2023-05-29
11May
Employment Trends meets Federal Reserve Decisions
Astor’s CEO Rob Stein and CIO John Eckstein explore the interplay between employment trends and Federal Reserve decisions. MAS-M-380952-2023-05-08
4May
Staying Ahead of the Curve: Navigating Fed Policy, Robust Inflation, and the Economy
Astor’s CIO John Eckstein and Portfolio Manager/Vice President – Research, Nick Porter provide insights on the current economic landscape and the challenges the Fed is facing in controlling inflation. MAS-M-378863-2023-05-02
27Apr
Inflation & Duration: Navigating Rising Fixed Income Volatility
One can be forgiven for looking back on Fixed Income markets in the period between the Global Financial Crisis and the pandemic with something approaching fondness. The Great Recession and the period thereafter were dominated by concerns about the lower zero bound for rates and the need to stretch duration to get anything approaching reasonable…
19Apr
April 2023 Update on the U.S. Economy
The data for the month of March showed a slight cooling of the U.S. economy but wasn’t fundamentally view changing for the domestic near-term trajectory. The Astor Economic Index® stayed in the same range that it began in 2023, at a level consistent with below-average growth. One of the big puzzles of the current macroeconomic…
24Mar
March 2023 Update on the U.S. Economy
Harold Wilson, the former Prime Minister of the United Kingdom, said (probably apocryphally) that “a week is a long time in politics”. In economics, a day can prove to be a lifetime, as recent events have shown. Banking sector stress over the past week has led to a dramatic repricing across the fixed-income world, and…
21Mar
Banking Crisis 2.0
As the recent bank failures hit the news wires the headlines became sensational, with some commentators claiming that the system was imploding. Ironically, just weeks ago, the banking system was characterized as ‘bulletproof’. To be clear, this is not 2008. That was a true banking and financial crisis with a complete breakdown of the banking…
15Mar
What does the Latest Employment Report implies to Fed?
Astor’s CEO, Rob Stein, and CIO John Eckstein analyze the latest employment report and discuss what it implies to the Fed. MAS-M-360082-2023-03-14
10Mar
Get up-to-date on Economic Conditions in the U.S.
Astor’s CIO, John Eckstein, and Portfolio Manager/ VP – Research Nicholas Porter get you up-to-date on the economic conditions in the U.S. MAS-M-357438-2023-03-07
14Feb
February 2023 Update on the U.S. Economy
The U.S. economy is not in want of compelling data points of late, with prints in all sorts of indicators well outside of historical norms. The challenge, of course, is that many of these series are in open contradiction. For its part, the Astor Economic Index® (AEI) indicates an economy that is cooling (or has…
7Feb
Breakdown of the Latest Employment Report & What it means to the Fed?
Astor’s CEO, Rob Stein, and CIO, John Eckstein break down the latest employment report and what it means for the Fed. MAS-M-346515-2023-02-06
24Jan
Get up-to-date on Inflation and the Fed
Astor’s CIO, John Eckstein, and Portfolio Manager/ VP – Research Nicholas Porter get you up to date on Inflation and the Fed. MAS-M-339921-2023-01-20