Category: Commentary/Video

72 posts categorized as "Commentary/Video"

16Feb

February 2024 Update on the U.S. Economy

The U.S. economy has defied predictions of its imminent demise for some time, and data from the month of January reinforced that trend with robust labor figures and hotter inflation numbers. Markets have been forced to reprice their expectations for a quick March cut by the Fed, with Chair Powell strongly pushing back against the…

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8Feb

Astor Economics In Focus: First Half 2024 Outlook

MARKETS: 2023 2023 was one of the most interesting years to be an investor. Volatility raked wide swaths of the bond market throughout the year, as regional banks came under pressure, inflation expectations swung up and down, and Fed policy was priced and repriced. The yield on U.S. 10-yr treasuries began the year at 3.87%,…

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8Feb

Economy in Focus: Labor Market, Payroll Numbers, and Powell Insights

Astor’s CIO John Eckstein and Nick Tell, CEO of Armory Capital discuss the labor market, payroll numbers, and Powell insights – LISTEN NOW! Podcast # 136 MAS-M-496303-2024-02-07

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20Dec

December 2023 Update on the U.S. Economy

Our last reading of the Astor Economic Index® (AEI) in 2023 places U.S. economic growth in about average territory, up modestly from the beginning of the year as expectations for future growth improved. The consensus narrative agrees with this reading, seeing an economy that has finally shook off the pandemic induced shackles and returned to…

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10Nov

November 2023 Update on the U.S. Economy

The Astor Economic Index® (AEI) continued its upward trend in October, ending at a level just around average economic growth. It has been an interesting journey for the AEI this year so far, with somewhat weak growth (driven mostly by soft PMIs) balanced out by a very hot labor market. Due in part to soft…

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17Oct

October 2023 Update on the U.S. Economy

Over the past few months, forecasts of an imminent recession have been pushed further and further away. Instead, consensus views vacillate between two scenarios: an economy “stuck” at higher growth  and higher interest rates for the time being, and the much-heralded soft landing, with a slowly cooling labor market and inflation coming down over time….

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15Sep

September 2023 Update on the U.S. Economy

The U.S. economy remained around potential in August, with softer labor market prints pointing to lower momentum in hiring against the backdrop of a secularly tight labor market. The Astor Economic Index® has ticked up slightly, but remains range bound in the average to below average economic growth.   As we’ve said in the past,…

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1Sep

INSIGHTS: Economic Crystall Balls – Comparing Four Recession Forecasting Tools

If I tell a stranger, you are an economist the first thing you notice is the glassy look in their eyes. The second thing that happens is that they ask you what will happen to the stock market. Economists don’t know! We can echo Pierpont Morgan and say, “I expect it to fluctuate”, but beyond…

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20Aug

INSIGHTS: Interest Rates & Fed Minutes: August 2023

Fed minutes from last month’s meeting were released on Wednesday (8/16). After a summer of disinflation, many were hoping for a policy narrative congruent with the downward price movement we’ve seen in 2023: something akin to a final act. While there were a few dovish dissenters that were reluctant to raise the target rate, the…

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11Aug

August 2023 Update on the U.S. Economy

The U.S. economic picture has been essentially unchanged for the past few months, with a general trend towards disinflation, growth returning towards potential, and a secularly tight but slowing labor market. The Astor Economic Index® agrees with this narrative, ending the month of July at a level consistent with below potential output, driven mostly by…

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8Aug

Payroll Pulse – Navigating the Economy

Astor Investment Management’s CEO,  Rob Stein and CIO, John Eckstein discuss the payroll pulse and navigating the economy. Listen now! Episode 126 MAS-M-413594-2023-08-08

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20Jul

Economic Kaleidoscope: Unveiling Super Insight into the Economy

Astor Investment Management’s, CIO John Eckstein along with John Davi, CEO Astoria Portfolio Advisors discuss the economic kaleidoscope! Listen now! Episode 125 MAS-M-403727-2023-07-17

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20Jul

July 2023 Update on the U.S. Economy

In our view, the U.S. economy is well on its way to cooling to its pre-pandemic potential, and a soft landing (with stable payrolls and slightly above average inflation) is more likely today than in the recent past. Refraining from over extrapolating any given data point will be important going forward – the economy, and…

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20Jun

June 2023 Update on the U.S. Economy

The U.S. economy has continued its normalization over the past month, with key measures of output and labor moving towards the pre-pandemic trend. For the pessimistic, there are plenty of cracks in the data to support a narrative of underlying weakness, but the overall picture is one of robust demand and gradual cooling. The The…

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5Jun

Tune in for A Succinct Rundown of the Latest in Inflation Trends and Economic Growth

Astor’s CIO John Eckstein and Portfolio Manager/Vice President – Research, Nick Porter provide insights on inflation trends and economic growth. MAS-M-388004-2023-05-29

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11May

Employment Trends meets Federal Reserve Decisions

Astor’s CEO Rob Stein and CIO John Eckstein explore the interplay between employment trends and Federal Reserve decisions. MAS-M-380952-2023-05-08

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4May

Staying Ahead of the Curve: Navigating Fed Policy, Robust Inflation, and the Economy

Astor’s CIO John Eckstein and Portfolio Manager/Vice President – Research, Nick Porter provide insights on the current economic landscape and the challenges the Fed is facing in controlling inflation. MAS-M-378863-2023-05-02

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27Apr

Inflation & Duration: Navigating Rising Fixed Income Volatility

One can be forgiven for looking back on Fixed Income markets in the period between the Global Financial Crisis and the pandemic with something approaching fondness. The Great Recession and the period thereafter were dominated by concerns about the lower zero bound for rates and the need to stretch duration to get anything approaching reasonable…

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19Apr

April 2023 Update on the U.S. Economy

The data for the month of March showed a slight cooling of the U.S. economy but wasn’t fundamentally view changing for the domestic near-term trajectory. The Astor Economic Index® stayed in the same range that it began in 2023, at a level consistent with below-average growth. One of the big puzzles of the current macroeconomic…

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24Mar

March 2023 Update on the U.S. Economy

Harold Wilson, the former Prime Minister of the United Kingdom, said (probably apocryphally) that “a week is a long time in politics”. In economics, a day can prove to be a lifetime, as recent events have shown. Banking sector stress over the past week has led to a dramatic repricing across the fixed-income world, and…

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