Category: Commentary/Video
256 posts categorized as "Commentary/Video"
18Nov
Gauging Fed and Market Reaction to CPI
Astor’s CIO John Eckstein and Research Associate Nick Porter share their thoughts on the Fed and Market Reaction to CPI. MAS-M-321021-2022-11-14
18Nov
November 2022 Update on the U.S. Economy
The Astor Economic Index®, our nowcast of the U.S. economy, is essentially unchanged from the prior month at a level consistent with below-average economic output. Nonetheless, the intervening period has had several significant data prints, which we discuss below. In sum, recent trends suggest that the window to a soft(er) landing is now more open…
8Nov
Fed and Payroll Outlook
Astor’s CEO, Rob Stein, and CIO John Eckstein share their thoughts on the Fed and Payroll Outlook. MAS-M-318084-2022-11-06
19Oct
October 2022 Update on the U.S. Economy
September brought little in the way of relief for those looking for a Fed pivot, and the Astor Economic Index® remained constrained at a below-average reading. As in recent months, the U.S. labor market is somewhat at odds with the global economy and other domestic data prints, with job gains elevated despite softening purchasing manager…
18Oct
The Latest Inflation News and Outlook
Astor’s CIO, John Eckstein, and Research Associate, Nick Porter discuss the latest inflation news and outlook. MAS-M-310193-2022-10-17
11Oct
Latest Unemployment Report and The Fed Outlook
Astor’s CEO, Rob Stein, and CIO, John Eckstein, discuss the latest unemployment report and the Fed outlook. MAS-M-308024-2022-10-11
3Oct
22Sep
Breaking down the latest Fed meeting
Astor’s CIO, John Eckstein, and Research Associate, Nick Porter, break down the latest fed meeting.
20Sep
Do You Want To Know What Is Going On With The Markets?
Do you want to know what is going on with the markets? It’s common sense duh. At times, doctors, politicians, professors, and economists make things sound complicated when there are obvious logical answers. My guess is that they need to feel superior because, well, you know…The Fed and many well-known economists are looking too deep…
9Sep
September 2022 Update on the U.S. Economy
The U.S. economy has proven resilient to firming monetary policy so far this year. The Astor Economic Index® (AEI) is at a level consistent with below-average growth but above outright recession. This is consistent with other nowcasts and forecasts of the U.S. economy: Bloomberg consensus for Q3 GDP growth is at 1.4%, down a tad…
17Aug
August 2022 Update on the U.S. Economy
July was a very interesting month for economic data, with several of the series that we watch closely at Astor pointing in different directions. The Astor Economic Index®, our attempt to summarize these data points, ended the month in below-average growth territory and somewhat softer than the month before. The labor market has been a…
15Aug
Latest inflation news and the outlook for the Fed
Astor’s CIO, John Eckstein, and research associate, Nick Porter, deep dive into the latest inflation news and the outlook for the Fed.
9Aug
Gauging the U.S. Consumer
Employment has been resilient to inflation, rising rates and slowing growth trends, but for how much longer? Consumer financial situations have been impacted, reducing savings rates and increasing borrowing levels… Factors to help the economy regain its footing may not be helpful for the U.S. consumer in the near term… For context, let’s quickly walk…
8Aug
What does the latest payroll report tell us about inflation and the fed?
Astor’s CEO, Rob Stein, and CIO, John Eckstein, discuss the latest payroll report and what it tells us about inflation and the fed.
3Aug
Exchange Rate Drivers
Recent Dollar Trends The U.S. dollar is very much in the limelight of late, with the greenback relentlessly climbing against its developed market peers. The euro to dollar exchange rate (EUR/USD) is closely watched as a gauge of global sentiment and is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world. The euro recently touched…
25Jul
Fed preview and inflation outlook
Federal Reserve preview and inflation outlook with CIO, John Eckstein, and Research Associate, Nick Porter.
15Jul
July 2022 Update on the U.S. Economy
The U.S. economy is at an interesting crossroad: the labor market is showing continued strength despite weakening output, burgeoning inflation, and an increasingly hawkish Fed. The Astor Economic Index has taken the side of the naysayers, posting consecutive declines for the last 11 months. The index now lies somewhere in the below-average to weak range….
11Jul
Is The Market Showing Signs of A Recession?
Astor’s CEO, Rob Stein, and CIO, John Eckstein, break down the latest employment report looking for signs of the recession everyone is talking about.
8Jul
You Can’t Buy Love and You Can’t Buy An Expansion
As the markets hit that magical percent drawdown number, market experts tell us we are in a bear market. If only they told us sooner… Inflation was not transitory after all, and the Fed needed to react which led to the typical result from raising rates quickly… Again, who could predict that mailing money to…
1Jul
Is a recession coming?
Astor’s CIO, John Eckstein, and Research Associate, Nick Porter, discuss if a recession is on its way using the latest economic data.