Category: Events
66 posts categorized as "Events"
17Oct
October 2023 Update on the U.S. Economy
Over the past few months, forecasts of an imminent recession have been pushed further and further away. Instead, consensus views vacillate between two scenarios: an economy “stuck” at higher growth and higher interest rates for the time being, and the much-heralded soft landing, with a slowly cooling labor market and inflation coming down over time….
11Aug
August 2023 Update on the U.S. Economy
The U.S. economic picture has been essentially unchanged for the past few months, with a general trend towards disinflation, growth returning towards potential, and a secularly tight but slowing labor market. The Astor Economic Index® agrees with this narrative, ending the month of July at a level consistent with below potential output, driven mostly by…
11Jul
Will the Unemployment Report Change the Fed’s Course?
Astor’s CEO Rob Stein and CIO John Eckstein discuss if the unemployment report will change the the fed’s course in our latest podcast! Listen now! Episode 124 MAS-M-400563-2023-07-10
5Jun
Tune in for A Succinct Rundown of the Latest in Inflation Trends and Economic Growth
Astor’s CIO John Eckstein and Portfolio Manager/Vice President – Research, Nick Porter provide insights on inflation trends and economic growth. MAS-M-388004-2023-05-29
27Apr
Inflation & Duration: Navigating Rising Fixed Income Volatility
One can be forgiven for looking back on Fixed Income markets in the period between the Global Financial Crisis and the pandemic with something approaching fondness. The Great Recession and the period thereafter were dominated by concerns about the lower zero bound for rates and the need to stretch duration to get anything approaching reasonable…
21Mar
Banking Crisis 2.0
As the recent bank failures hit the news wires the headlines became sensational, with some commentators claiming that the system was imploding. Ironically, just weeks ago, the banking system was characterized as ‘bulletproof’. To be clear, this is not 2008. That was a true banking and financial crisis with a complete breakdown of the banking…
7Dec
December 2022 Update on the U.S. Economy
The Astor Economic Index® declined further in the month of November to a level typically associated with a weak economic state. The economy is in an interesting position, with the labor market humming along, but some soft data point to substantial weakness in manufacturing. The latest non-farm payroll was interesting, and it’s worth going beyond…
15Aug
Latest inflation news and the outlook for the Fed
Astor’s CIO, John Eckstein, and research associate, Nick Porter, deep dive into the latest inflation news and the outlook for the Fed.
8Aug
What does the latest payroll report tell us about inflation and the fed?
Astor’s CEO, Rob Stein, and CIO, John Eckstein, discuss the latest payroll report and what it tells us about inflation and the fed.
19May
Market Commentary: Super-Hyper Inflation, So What’s the Plan?
Wednesday (5/18) was a day of turmoil in equity markets with the S&P 500 down about 4% as investors sold risk assets for the safety of government bonds. I personally wouldn’t jump into bonds for the long term at this point, but yesterday investors needed to do something and bonds were the easiest choice. Markets…
12May
Market Commentary: It’s all about the Fed… Still
The markets have had a challenging time the past few weeks, quickly retracing back to the levels of a year ago. Perspective is always important, but the Fed’s perspective is essential! As I said at the beginning of the year, it’s all about the Fed and how they navigate interest rates. The Fed got it wrong when…
11Feb
February 2022 Update on the U.S. Economy
January proved an exciting month for macroeconomic data, with some clarity gained on the near-term trajectory of the U.S. economy and the state of inflation. We’ll begin with the Astor Economic Index, which has begun to move down rather precipitously of late. Although the AEI’s movement over the past month might make for a concerning…
23Nov
Inflation Hedges: A Look at the Record
TO DOWNLOAD A PRINTABLE VERSION (CLICK HERE) Many of our clients are concerned about a rise in inflation. This note takes a hard look at various supposed inflation hedges. We will look at stocks, bonds, REITs, gold, commodities, T-bills and TIPS: the answer may surprise you. I don’t see one size fits all answers to…
31Aug
Rob Stein on Millennials and Money with Angela Miles
https://astorim.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/Rob-Stein-Millennials-and-Money.mp4 AIM-8/31/21-OP445
14Jul
Astor Q2 2021 Strategy Update Recording with CEO & Founder, Rob Stein.
Recording of Astor’s Q2 2021 Strategy Update call with CEO & Founder, Rob Stein.
9Jul
July 2021 Update on the U.S. Economy
The Astor Economic Index was essentially unchanged month over month, ending June at a level consistent with strong to very strong economic growth. Of course, a quiet month in the AEI® does not mean that there is no interesting economic data to dissect, and we delve into some highlights below. The story of the past…
16Jun
June 2021 Update on the U.S. Economy
The Astor Economic Index® (“AEI”) improved once again in the month of May, ticking up to a post-pandemic high, and nearing levels last seen in 2019. The reading is consistent with the general macroeconomic narrative of the U.S. economy, with flush households, strong demand and burgeoning external support. Although GDP growth seems to be on…
24May
The ‘Macro’ Style of Investing and Why I’m Excited…
Let’s look back on a historic, discretionary macro trade: In September 1992, the British pound was fixed to the Deutschemark through the European Exchange Rate Mechanism (ERM), a precursor to the Euro we know today. If you tried to sell pounds below a certain level, the Bank of England (the central bank of the UK)…
18May
My Compelling Reasons for Hyper-Inflation and Potential Impacts
Inflation itself is not a rally-killer for stocks. Rather, I believe it is the interest rate differential between a risk-free return against the risk on stock prices and dividend yield. I think that spread has favored stocks for some time and very aggressively for the past 12 months. As rates rise and stocks appreciate, I…
18May
Economic Fundamentals During Economic Recoveries
Case Study: Economic Fundamentals and Mid-Recovery Slowdowns The U.S. is amid a historic recovery, with U.S. GDP expanding at an eyewatering 4.3% (Q/Q SAAR) in Q4 2020 and 6.4% (advance number) in Q1 2021. While the loosening of COVID-19 restrictions, substantial fiscal stimulus, and loose monetary policy have contributed to a substantially sunnier economic outlook…