Category: Economic

73 posts categorized as "Economic"

10Apr

April Update on the U.S. Economy

Our proprietary Astor Economic Index® is still showing above average growth in the U.S. economy. The index recovered somewhat in line with the more positive payroll report released last week. Payroll rebound The payroll numbers in March rebounded from February’s low number which is now looking like an aberration and not the beginning of a…

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27Mar

Is the Yield Curve Signaling a Recession?

As parts of the yield curve begin to stay inverted, more investors start asking the same question: Is a recession finally coming? As an economist, I do value what the yield curve says. However, in my view, the current shape is still inconclusive as the curve is only inverted at certain points along the line….

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15Mar

March Update on the U.S. Economy

Our proprietary Astor Economic Index® is still showing above average growth in the US economy, though the index dropped significantly last month, partly in response to the payroll report. I characterize US growth as being good – somewhat above average – but below the strong growth we saw in 2018. Note that part of this…

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27Feb

The Deep Breath Before the Plunge: FOMC Forward Guidance on the Balance Sheet

The January 2019 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting gave market participants a welcome respite from what many viewed as a decoupling of rate expectations between the Federal Reserve and the market.  As a result, we expect the Fed’s balance sheet normalization to end sooner than previously expected and at a level greater than previously…

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23Jan

Rob Stein Talks About Translating Economic Information Into Investing Insights on Business First AM

  All information contained herein is for informational purposes only. This is not a solicitation to offer investment advice or services in any state where to do so would be unlawful. Analysis and research are provided for informational purposes only, not for trading or investing. Astor and its affiliates are not liable for the accuracy,…

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18Jan

Astor’s Outlook for 2019

Click here to read Astor’s Outlook for 2019. Founder and CEO, Rob Stein, looks back at 2018 in the markets, as well as what could be in store for 2019.

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10Jan

January update on the US economy

Our proprietary Astor Economic Index® is still showing good growth in the US economy relative to its recent average, though the index dropped significantly last month, partly in response to weaker purchasing managers surveys.  The fading fiscal stimulus from last year’s tax cut may be partially responsible for a downshift (though not a reversal) in…

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11Dec

December update on the US economy

Our proprietary Astor Economic Index® is still showing strong growth in the US economy, though the index is near its low for 2018.  The economy as we measure it has thus far proved itself resilient to escalating trade tensions and steadily rising interest rates. Labor market The pace of hires slowed slightly last month –…

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6Dec

Does an Inverted Term Structure Lead to Recession?

Given the yield curve has been in the news as of late, we wanted to re-share Astor’s views. Much has been made of the flattening yield curve trend that has developed over the past year or so.  Yield curves that are inverted, with short-term rates higher than long-term rates, have historically preceded recessions in the…

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12Nov

The Recession is Coming, The Recession is Coming . . . Or Is It?

Although the impossibility of predicting future recessions seems almost axiomatic, a growing crowd of economists, pundits and market participants have added their voices to the chorus proclaiming an impending recession in 2019 or 2020. The next recession is unlikely to mirror the 2008 financial crisis in duration and severity, but several of the more plausible…

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6Nov

November Update on the US Economy

Our proprietary Astor Economic Index® is still showing strong growth in the US economy, though the index is near its low for 2018.  The economy has thus far proved itself resilient to escalating trade tensions and steadily rising interest rates. Financial stress in October The most dramatic event in October was the selloff in global…

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16Oct

What Recession? Why the Sky Can’t Fall in the New Economic Reality

The recession is coming, the recession is coming – or, maybe not. Even as the market marches steadily higher, and the economic data print is consistently at or above the level indicating economic growth, the cry being heard is that a recession is coming.[i] Some even predict that the next downturn will be as severe…

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11Oct

October update on the US economy

Our proprietary Astor Economic Index® is still showing strong growth in the US economy. The index is currently at the bottom of a fairly narrow range it has been in during 2018.  The economy has thus far proved itself resilient to escalating trade tensions and steadily rising interest rates. Has the Fed shifted According to…

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11Sep

September update on the US economy

Our proprietary Astor Economic Index® is still showing strong growth in the US economy. The index is currently in the middle of a fairly narrow range it has been in during 2018.  The economy has thus far proved itself resilient to escalating trade tensions.     Various of the regional federal reserve banks produce nowcasting…

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6Jun

June update on the US economy

Our proprietary Astor Economic Index® is still showing strong growth in the US economy. The index is currently near the top of the fairly narrow range it has been in the last twelve months. The labor market continues to add more jobs than is required to keep up with the natural growth of population and…

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10May

May update on the US economy

Our proprietary Astor Economic Index® is still showing solid growth in the US economy. The index is currently near the top of the fairly narrow range it has been in the last twelve-month range. The labor market continues to add more jobs than is required to keep up with the natural growth of population and…

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27Apr

Economic Update

Watch Rob’s latest economic webinar 2018-82

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11Apr

U.S.-China Trade Wars: Talk and Market Impact

Your diligent economic blogger is struggling to keep up with the news on the trade war front. Last week the US and China traded threats of additional proposed trade sanctions – to be imposed after the still-theoretical initial set of mutual tariffs announced earlier in April. Recall that the world’s two largest economies will soon…

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21Jul

Fed Outlook H2 2017

Our proprietary Astor Economic Index® is still showing good growth in the US economy. The index improved substantially this month to near its highest levels of the year. The bright spot of the economy continues to be broad labor market improvements for such a late period in the cycle. Direct measures of labor market slack…

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13Apr

Investing: Put First Things First

At Astor we often say that we focus our attention on the most important question: asset allocation.  For the typical US investor that means primarily the ratio of equities to fixed income and secondarily allocations to diversifying assets to smooth the portfolio returns.  Once you have decided these broad allocations your ultimate returns are –…

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All information contained herein is for informational purposes only. This is not a solicitation to offer investment advice or services in any state where to do so would be unlawful. Analysis and research are provided for informational purposes only, not for trading or investing purposes. All opinions expressed are as of the date of publication and subject to change. Astor and its affiliates are not liable for the accuracy, usefulness or availability of any such information or liable for any trading or investing based on such information. Please refer to Astor’s Form ADV Part 2 for additional information regarding fees, risks and services.