Category: Economic

137 posts categorized as "Economic"

16Jul

Astor Weekly Economic Review – Episode 75

With inflation on the rise, constraints on the labor force and the supply chain are the focus of this week’s podcast episode. Astor CIO John Eckstein and Nick Porter delve deep into the numbers and discuss if these are trends or just a blip on the radar. AIM-7/15/21-OP403    

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14Jul

Astor Q2 2021 Strategy Update Recording with CEO & Founder, Rob Stein.

Recording of Astor’s Q2 2021 Strategy Update call with CEO & Founder, Rob Stein.  

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9Jul

July 2021 Update on the U.S. Economy

The Astor Economic Index was essentially unchanged month over month, ending June at a level consistent with strong to very strong economic growth. Of course, a quiet month in the AEI® does not mean that there is no interesting economic data to dissect, and we delve into some highlights below. The story of the past…

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23Jun

Astor Weekly Economic Review—Episode 73

Astor’s CIO John Eckstein and Nick Porter break down the latest on interest rates from The Fed and dive into the retails sales numbers that aren’t nearly what was expected. AIM-6/23/21-OP388

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16Jun

June 2021 Update on the U.S. Economy

The Astor Economic Index® (“AEI”) improved once again in the month of May, ticking up to a post-pandemic high, and nearing levels last seen in 2019. The reading is consistent with the general macroeconomic narrative of the U.S. economy, with flush households, strong demand and burgeoning external support. Although GDP growth seems to be on…

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24May

The ‘Macro’ Style of Investing and Why I’m Excited…

Let’s look back on a historic, discretionary macro trade: In September 1992, the British pound was fixed to the Deutschemark through the European Exchange Rate Mechanism (ERM), a precursor to the Euro we know today. If you tried to sell pounds below a certain level, the Bank of England (the central bank of the UK)…

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18May

My Compelling Reasons for Hyper-Inflation and Potential Impacts

Inflation itself is not a rally-killer for stocks.  Rather, I believe it is the interest rate differential between a risk-free return against the risk on stock prices and dividend yield. I think that spread has favored stocks for some time and very aggressively for the past 12 months.  As rates rise and stocks appreciate, I…

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18May

Economic Fundamentals During Economic Recoveries

Case Study: Economic Fundamentals and Mid-Recovery Slowdowns The U.S. is amid a historic recovery, with U.S. GDP expanding at an eyewatering 4.3% (Q/Q SAAR) in Q4 2020 and 6.4% (advance number) in Q1 2021. While the loosening of COVID-19 restrictions, substantial fiscal stimulus, and loose monetary policy have contributed to a substantially sunnier economic outlook…

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14May

May 2021 Update on the U.S. Economy

The Astor Economic Index® (“AEI”) improved slightly month over month and remains at a level indicative of strong fundamentals, reflecting very strong output measures across the U.S. economy, as well as declining jobless claim figures. The dip in the AEI from the second wave earlier this year has been mostly retraced as the U.S. recovers…

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14Apr

April 2021 Update on the U.S. Economy

Macroeconomic data has teased us for several months with the hope of a new spring, and the month of March has aptly enough delivered on that promise. Much of the nation has substantially eased lockdown restrictions as the pace of vaccinations pick up pace, and the near-term trajectory of the U.S. economy is on substantially…

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12Mar

March 2021 Update on the U.S. Economy

No news is good news, at least as the U.S. economy is concerned in its current state of slowly animating suspension. The Astor Economic Index has been range bound at a level approximating above average growth for several months and ended the month of February essentially unchanged. The labor market picked up some steam, with…

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25Feb

Rob Stein Update on Inflation

As inflation expectations begin to accelerate and long rates begin to rise, I thought I would review my thoughts on inflation and rates from previous articles and the Outlook 2021. One of the basic definitions of inflation is “too much money chasing too few goods.” With the mailbox money from 2020 increasing money supply and…

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22Feb

Rob Stein 2020 Review – ADA

Recording of Astor’s Q3 2020 call with CEO & Founder, Rob Stein. Rob Stein Q4 Review 2020 from Astor Investment Management on Vimeo.   AIM-2/18/21-VP307

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16Feb

February 2021 Update on the U.S. Economy

The theme in economic pundit circles during the month of January was short-term stagnation, and the Astor Economic Index certainly agrees, remaining essentially unchanged from where in began the year and in growth territory.  As in prior months, the economy remains under substantial restrictions that are trending broadly towards easing, and we expect to see…

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16Feb

Astor’s 2021 Outlook

2020 is destined to become one of those years that will be remembered just by mentioning two digits, much like ’87, ’01, and ’08 have become synonymous with the events of each respective year. All someone will need to say is “remember ’20,” and we’ll know everything that number entails—from the pandemic to the presidency,…

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22Jan

January 2021 Update on the U.S. Economy

With COVID-19 still spreading throughout the United States, the Astor Economic Index continued its weakening trend in the month of December, ending the quarter down from its peak several months ago but still well into solid growth territory. This month’s non-farm payroll came in about as expected with a loss of 140,000 jobs month over…

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4Jan

2020 in Retrospect

Coming into 2020 the U.S. economy, as we measure it with the Astor Economic Index®, was growing about trend, though weaker than the pace of 2018. The U.S. consumer was the true pillar, with the unemployment rate sitting at 3.5%. U.S. Manufacturing had peaked in the second half of 2018, declining steadily through 2019 as…

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18Dec

December 2020 Update on the U.S. Economy

As we have said before in this blog, as goes the pandemic, so goes the U.S. economy. The Astor Economic Index reflects this reality, ticking down in November from its 2020 highs, although still in solid growth territory. In November we noted that the impact of the second wave of COVID-19 and concomitant lockdowns would…

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20Nov

Three Things That Will Matter in 2021

With the election behind us and increased visibility of life after the pandemic, I’ve had time to reflect on the economy, the markets and the impact of responses to the economic shut down. Economists often get stuck in the theoretical or the academic reasons for market movements and economies cycles, often missing “the forest for…

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18Nov

Market Cap Trends – Q4 2020

• Mega cap stocks have driven domestic stock market performance, by in large, in 2020. Might that be changing? • Recent trends have seen changes in market segment performance such as small cap and value index performance • Visibility into a COVID-19 vaccine may support a broader benefit for stocks, not just a few concentrated…

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