Category: Economic

201 posts categorized as "Economic"


November 2023 Update on the U.S. Economy

The Astor Economic Index® (AEI) continued its upward trend in October, ending at a level just around average economic growth. It has been an interesting journey for the AEI this year so far, with somewhat weak growth (driven mostly by soft PMIs) balanced out by a very hot labor market. Due in part to soft…

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October 2023 Update on the U.S. Economy

Over the past few months, forecasts of an imminent recession have been pushed further and further away. Instead, consensus views vacillate between two scenarios: an economy “stuck” at higher growth  and higher interest rates for the time being, and the much-heralded soft landing, with a slowly cooling labor market and inflation coming down over time….

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Get the Breakdown of the Latest Payroll Number with CEO Rob Stein and CIO John Eckstein

CIO John Eckstein and CEO Rob Stein discuss the current state of the economy, which they coin as ‘Goldilocks.’ In this episode 130, they delve into key economic indicators such as the employment situation report, inflation, an economy review, and payroll numbers. Tune in now! MAS-M-434759-2023-10-09

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What is the Fed Outlook with the Recent Economic Data?

Astor’s CIO John Eckstein and Portfolio Manager/Vice President – Research, Nick Porter provide insights on recent economic data and the Fed’s outlook. LISTEN NOW! MAS-M-424640-2023-09-12

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September 2023 Update on the U.S. Economy

The U.S. economy remained around potential in August, with softer labor market prints pointing to lower momentum in hiring against the backdrop of a secularly tight labor market. The Astor Economic Index® has ticked up slightly, but remains range bound in the average to below average economic growth.   As we’ve said in the past,…

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INSIGHTS: Economic Crystall Balls – Comparing Four Recession Forecasting Tools

If I tell a stranger, you are an economist the first thing you notice is the glassy look in their eyes. The second thing that happens is that they ask you what will happen to the stock market. Economists don’t know! We can echo Pierpont Morgan and say, “I expect it to fluctuate”, but beyond…

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INSIGHTS: Interest Rates & Fed Minutes: August 2023

Fed minutes from last month’s meeting were released on Wednesday (8/16). After a summer of disinflation, many were hoping for a policy narrative congruent with the downward price movement we’ve seen in 2023: something akin to a final act. While there were a few dovish dissenters that were reluctant to raise the target rate, the…

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August 2023 Update on the U.S. Economy

The U.S. economic picture has been essentially unchanged for the past few months, with a general trend towards disinflation, growth returning towards potential, and a secularly tight but slowing labor market. The Astor Economic Index® agrees with this narrative, ending the month of July at a level consistent with below potential output, driven mostly by…

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Payroll Pulse – Navigating the Economy

Astor Investment Management’s CEO,  Rob Stein and CIO, John Eckstein discuss the payroll pulse and navigating the economy. Listen now! Episode 126 MAS-M-413594-2023-08-08

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Economic Kaleidoscope: Unveiling Super Insight into the Economy

Astor Investment Management’s, CIO John Eckstein along with John Davi, CEO Astoria Portfolio Advisors discuss the economic kaleidoscope! Listen now! Episode 125 MAS-M-403727-2023-07-17

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July 2023 Update on the U.S. Economy

In our view, the U.S. economy is well on its way to cooling to its pre-pandemic potential, and a soft landing (with stable payrolls and slightly above average inflation) is more likely today than in the recent past. Refraining from over extrapolating any given data point will be important going forward – the economy, and…

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Will the Unemployment Report Change the Fed’s Course?

Astor’s CEO Rob Stein and CIO John Eckstein discuss if the unemployment report will change the the fed’s course in our latest podcast! Listen now! Episode 124 MAS-M-400563-2023-07-10  

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June 2023 Update on the U.S. Economy

The U.S. economy has continued its normalization over the past month, with key measures of output and labor moving towards the pre-pandemic trend. For the pessimistic, there are plenty of cracks in the data to support a narrative of underlying weakness, but the overall picture is one of robust demand and gradual cooling. The The…

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Tune in for A Succinct Rundown of the Latest in Inflation Trends and Economic Growth

Astor’s CIO John Eckstein and Portfolio Manager/Vice President – Research, Nick Porter provide insights on inflation trends and economic growth. MAS-M-388004-2023-05-29

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May 2023 Update on the U.S. Economy

The general economic outlook for the U.S. economy is essentially stable, with the labor market moderating and inflation coming down slightly from its recent peak. The Astor Economic Index® remains at a level consistent with below-average economic growth and has been supported by continued growth in employment, although somewhat weakened by softer data like PMIs….

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Employment Trends meets Federal Reserve Decisions

Astor’s CEO Rob Stein and CIO John Eckstein explore the interplay between employment trends and Federal Reserve decisions. MAS-M-380952-2023-05-08

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Staying Ahead of the Curve: Navigating Fed Policy, Robust Inflation, and the Economy

Astor’s CIO John Eckstein and Portfolio Manager/Vice President – Research, Nick Porter provide insights on the current economic landscape and the challenges the Fed is facing in controlling inflation. MAS-M-378863-2023-05-02

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Inflation & Duration: Navigating Rising Fixed Income Volatility

One can be forgiven for looking back on Fixed Income markets in the period between the Global Financial Crisis and the pandemic with something approaching fondness. The Great Recession and the period thereafter were dominated by concerns about the lower zero bound for rates and the need to stretch duration to get anything approaching reasonable…

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April 2023 Update on the U.S. Economy

The data for the month of March showed a slight cooling of the U.S. economy but wasn’t fundamentally view changing for the domestic near-term trajectory. The Astor Economic Index® stayed in the same range that it began in 2023, at a level consistent with below-average growth. One of the big puzzles of the current macroeconomic…

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March 2023 Update on the U.S. Economy

Harold Wilson, the former Prime Minister of the United Kingdom, said (probably apocryphally) that “a week is a long time in politics”. In economics, a day can prove to be a lifetime, as recent events have shown. Banking sector stress over the past week has led to a dramatic repricing across the fixed-income world, and…

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