Category: Economic

81 posts categorized as "Economic"

7Aug

August Update on the U.S. Economy

Our proprietary Astor Economic Index® deteriorated slightly last month and is showing about average growth in the U.S. economy. Labor Market My interpretation is that the labor market is slowing somewhat and in the next few years, we will not enjoy the regular robust gains we have seen since the Global Financial Crisis. For example,…

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31Jul

Rob Stein Discusses Fed Rate Cut on TDA Network’s Market on Close – July 31, 2019

Watch Astor’s CEO and Founder, Rob Stein, on TDA Network’s, Market on Close,  as he discusses the FOMC announcement and  Jerome Powell’s press conference.   Click the image above or click here to watch the video! All information contained herein is for informational purposes only. This is not a solicitation to offer investment advice or services in any…

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30Jul

Q2 in Review: Eyes on the Fed’s “Medicine”

  Q2 ended with a continuation of the 2019 rally, marking one of the best half-years in recent memory. That said, at of the close of Q2, the broad U.S. equity market was roughly 8% higher from one year ago. Given how far the market traveled in that 12-month period, a 8% gain is no…

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25Jul

Understanding the Recent Decline in the Astor Economic Index®

2019 has seen a marked deterioration in the Astor Economic Index® (the AEI) from levels we associate with strong growth to levels which we see as more representative of average growth.  This long-term chart of the AEI shows that while not unprecedented, the sharp decline in the AEI over the last few months is unusual….

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12Jul

July Update on the U.S. Economy

The Astor Economic Index is largely unchanged since our last reading of the U.S. economy in early June, remaining at levels consistent with average domestic economic growth. Both the ISM Purchasing Manager’s Index and ISM Non-Manufacturing Index continued their downward trend, although both remain in growth territory. ISM manufacturing ticked down to 51.7 from 52.1,…

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12Jun

June Update on the U.S. Economy

In June, our proprietary Astor Economic Index has continued the slide it began in late 2018. The AEI now corresponds to a level of activity slightly above average growth for the U.S. economy. Although the deterioration in our reading of the current US macroeconomic state is troublesome, it is worth noting that average growth is…

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30May

Dimensioning the Impact of the U.S.-China Trade Dispute

There is no shortage of whiplash-providing economic and geopolitical risks to pay attention to these days. For some time, market participants were focused on Federal Reserve policy and the (still) ongoing Brexit negotiations. Of late, however, the market narrative and risk tolerance are driven more and more by growing concerns around the U.S.-China trade war….

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9May

May Update on the U.S. Economy

Our proprietary Astor Economic Index® is showing slightly above average growth in the U.S. economy. The index deteriorated last month despite the upward surprise in first quarter GDP growth. While still showing above average growth the index is below where it was during the energy bust of 2016. First Quarter Growth The first reading on…

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10Apr

April Update on the U.S. Economy

Our proprietary Astor Economic Index® is still showing above average growth in the U.S. economy. The index recovered somewhat in line with the more positive payroll report released last week. Payroll rebound The payroll numbers in March rebounded from February’s low number which is now looking like an aberration and not the beginning of a…

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27Mar

Is the Yield Curve Signaling a Recession?

As parts of the yield curve begin to stay inverted, more investors start asking the same question: Is a recession finally coming? As an economist, I do value what the yield curve says. However, in my view, the current shape is still inconclusive as the curve is only inverted at certain points along the line….

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15Mar

March Update on the U.S. Economy

Our proprietary Astor Economic Index® is still showing above average growth in the US economy, though the index dropped significantly last month, partly in response to the payroll report. I characterize US growth as being good – somewhat above average – but below the strong growth we saw in 2018. Note that part of this…

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27Feb

The Deep Breath Before the Plunge: FOMC Forward Guidance on the Balance Sheet

The January 2019 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting gave market participants a welcome respite from what many viewed as a decoupling of rate expectations between the Federal Reserve and the market.  As a result, we expect the Fed’s balance sheet normalization to end sooner than previously expected and at a level greater than previously…

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23Jan

Rob Stein Talks About Translating Economic Information Into Investing Insights on Business First AM

  All information contained herein is for informational purposes only. This is not a solicitation to offer investment advice or services in any state where to do so would be unlawful. Analysis and research are provided for informational purposes only, not for trading or investing. Astor and its affiliates are not liable for the accuracy,…

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18Jan

Astor’s Outlook for 2019

Click here to read Astor’s Outlook for 2019. Founder and CEO, Rob Stein, looks back at 2018 in the markets, as well as what could be in store for 2019.

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10Jan

January update on the US economy

Our proprietary Astor Economic Index® is still showing good growth in the US economy relative to its recent average, though the index dropped significantly last month, partly in response to weaker purchasing managers surveys.  The fading fiscal stimulus from last year’s tax cut may be partially responsible for a downshift (though not a reversal) in…

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11Dec

December update on the US economy

Our proprietary Astor Economic Index® is still showing strong growth in the US economy, though the index is near its low for 2018.  The economy as we measure it has thus far proved itself resilient to escalating trade tensions and steadily rising interest rates. Labor market The pace of hires slowed slightly last month –…

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6Dec

Does an Inverted Term Structure Lead to Recession?

Given the yield curve has been in the news as of late, we wanted to re-share Astor’s views. Much has been made of the flattening yield curve trend that has developed over the past year or so.  Yield curves that are inverted, with short-term rates higher than long-term rates, have historically preceded recessions in the…

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12Nov

The Recession is Coming, The Recession is Coming . . . Or Is It?

Although the impossibility of predicting future recessions seems almost axiomatic, a growing crowd of economists, pundits and market participants have added their voices to the chorus proclaiming an impending recession in 2019 or 2020. The next recession is unlikely to mirror the 2008 financial crisis in duration and severity, but several of the more plausible…

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6Nov

November Update on the US Economy

Our proprietary Astor Economic Index® is still showing strong growth in the US economy, though the index is near its low for 2018.  The economy has thus far proved itself resilient to escalating trade tensions and steadily rising interest rates. Financial stress in October The most dramatic event in October was the selloff in global…

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16Oct

What Recession? Why the Sky Can’t Fall in the New Economic Reality

The recession is coming, the recession is coming – or, maybe not. Even as the market marches steadily higher, and the economic data print is consistently at or above the level indicating economic growth, the cry being heard is that a recession is coming.[i] Some even predict that the next downturn will be as severe…

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All information contained herein is for informational purposes only. This is not a solicitation to offer investment advice or services in any state where to do so would be unlawful. Analysis and research are provided for informational purposes only, not for trading or investing purposes. All opinions expressed are as of the date of publication and subject to change. Astor and its affiliates are not liable for the accuracy, usefulness or availability of any such information or liable for any trading or investing based on such information. Please refer to Astor’s Form ADV Part 2 for additional information regarding fees, risks and services.