Economic Charts

Source: Astor calculations

Shaded regions represent recessions as determined by NBER.

The Astor Economic Index® should not be used as the sole determining factor for your investment decision. There is no guarantee that the index will produce the same results in the future. Please refer to the accompanying disclosure for additional information regarding the Index.

Source: KC Fed, Astor calculations

Shaded regions represent recessions as determined by NBER.

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

Shaded regions represent recessions as determined by NBER.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Shaded regions represent recessions as determined by NBER.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Shaded regions represent recessions as determined by NBER.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Shaded regions represent recessions as determined by NBER.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Shaded regions represent recessions as determined by NBER.

50 represents activity which is neither increasing nor decreasing

Source: Institute of Supply Management

Shaded regions represent recessions as determined by NBER.

Source: Federal Reserve Board

Shaded regions represent recessions as determined by NBER.

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

Shaded regions represent recessions as determined by NBER.

Blue line is FOMC’s 2% target for PCE

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Bureau of Economic Analysis

Shaded regions represent recessions as determined by NBER. Blue line represents the FOMC inflation
target for PCE.

Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System

Shaded regions represent recessions as determined by NBER.

50 = level where activity is neither increasing nor decreasing

Source: Markit, Institute for Supply Management, Astor calculations

10 yr: US ten year bond yield, 2 yr: US two year bond yield, FF: fed funds target rate

Source: Bloomberg

Shaded regions represent recessions as determined by NBER.

Shaded regions represent recessions as determined by NBER.

Shaded regions represent recessions as determined by NBER.

Shaded regions represent recessions as determined by NBER.

Source for all indexes on this page: Bloomberg.

Definitions

Astor Financial Stress Index: A proprietary index created by Astor Investment Management LLC. It represents an aggregation of various data points related to the condition of financial markets. The Astor Financial Stress Index is not an investable product. When investing, there are multiple factors to consider. The Astor Financial Stress Index should not be used as the sole determining factor for your investment decisions. The Index is based on retroactive data points and may be subject to hindsight bias. There is no guarantee the Index will produce the same results in the future. The Astor Financial Stress Index is a tool created and used by Astor. All conclusions are those of Astor and are subject to change.

Consumer Price Index (“CPI”): A measure of the change in prices paid over time by consumers for a basket of goods and calculated by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Shown on a year-over-year basis.

CRB Commodity Index: The Refinitiv/CoreCommodity CRB Index measures a group of 19 commodities as measured by futures contract prices for the applicable commodities.

Federal Funds Rate: The interest rate charged by banks when other banks lend excess cash from their reserves overnight.

Gross Domestic Product (“GDP”): A measure of the total value of goods and services produced within an economy over a set period of time.

Industrial Production: A monthly measure from the Federal Reserve based on the change in industrial production from month-to-month.

ISM Manufacturing Index: A monthly composite index produced by the Institute for Supply Management based on surveys of executives at industrial companies and designed to provide a reading on the change in sentiment month-to-month. Also referred to as the ISM Manufacturing PMI.

ISM Non-Manufacturing Index: A monthly composite index produced by the Institute for Supply Management based on surveys of executives at non-industrial companies and designed to provide a reading on the change in sentiment from month-to-month. Also referred to as the ISM Services PMI.

KC Fed Financial Stress Index: A monthly measure of the stress in the U.S. financial markets based on 11 variables and calculated by the Kansas City Federal Reserve.

M2: A monthly measure of the money supply consisting of M1 as well as various deposits and balances in money market funds. Calculated by the Federal Reserve and shown on a year-over-year basis.

Non-Farm Payrolls: A monthly measure of the total change in payrolls classified as non-farm by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Personal Consumption Expenditure (“PCE”): A measure of the change in value of goods and services purchased by people in the United States and shown on a year-over-year basis. Calculated by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.

Real Personal Consumption Expenditure (“PCE”): A measure of the change in value of goods and services purchased by people in the United States adjusted for inflation and shown on a year-over-year basis. Calculated by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.

S&P 500 Index: The S&P 500 Index measures the performance of 500 large cap stocks, which together represent approximately 80% of the total equities market in the United States. The S&P 500 is registered trademark of McGraw Hill Financial.

US Dollar: A measure of the value of the US dollar against a group of foreign currencies.

U3: A common measure used to report the unemployment rate which is represented by the number of people actively looking for a job

U6: A measure of unemployment that also includes workers who would like to work but are not actively looking as well as individuals who, due to economic conditions, are working part-time but desire to be full-time.

World Manufacturing PMIs: A collection of approximately 20 purchasing manager index inputs from various sources, weighted by GDP, and calculated by Astor.

Disclosures

All information contained herein is for informational purposes only. This is not a solicitation to offer investment advice or services in any state where to do so would be unlawful. Analysis and research are provided for informational purposes only, not for trading or investing purposes. All opinions expressed are as of the date of publication and subject to change. Astor and its affiliates are not liable for the accuracy, usefulness or availability of any such information or liable for any trading or investing based on such information.

The Astor Economic Index® is a proprietary index created by Astor Investment Management LLC. It represents an aggregation of various economic data points: including output and employment indicators. The Astor Economic Index® is designed to track the varying levels of growth within the U.S. economy by analyzing current trends against historical data. The Astor Economic Index® is not an investable product. When investing, there are multiple factors to consider. The Astor Economic Index® should not be used as the sole determining factor for your investment decisions. The Index is based on retroactive data points and may be subject to hindsight bias. There is no guarantee the Index will produce the same results in the future. The Astor Economic Index® is a tool created and used by Astor. All conclusions are those of Astor and are subject to change.

Approval code 2019-63-36

All information contained herein is for informational purposes only. This is not a solicitation to offer investment advice or services in any state where to do so would be unlawful. Analysis and research are provided for informational purposes only, not for trading or investing purposes. All opinions expressed are as of the date of publication and subject to change. Astor and its affiliates are not liable for the accuracy, usefulness or availability of any such information or liable for any trading or investing based on such information. Please refer to Astor’s Form ADV Part 2 for additional information regarding fees, risks and services.