Category: Uncategorized
27 posts categorized as "Uncategorized"
4Apr
Commodity Market Update – Q1 2022
Many of the most visible commodities – energies and grains – appreciated a great deal during the first quarter as shown in the charts below for eight of the more well known commodity contracts. There are macro factors both boosting and restraining commodity prices: On the bullish for commodities side: Shift in the composition…
15Jan
January 2022 Update on the U.S. Economy
As usual, we’ll be looking at recent economic data this month, but we’ll also expand on some of the themes we’ve seen this year and look ahead to our base case for 2022. It’s worth noting that our portfolio decisions are made by the current state of the U.S. economy, rather than any forecast, but…
7Dec
December 2021 Update on the U.S. Economy
Another month has passed as we hurtle to the New Year, and we find the Astor Economic Index at a similar level as in weeks past. In aggregate, the AEI (and our) view of the U.S. economy is that of continued strength, with a vigorous labor market and consumer demand. We discuss some of the…
29Nov
The “Fear Gauge”
The Cboe Volatility Index® (herein “VIX®” or “VIX® Index”) has become something of a household name. Known sometimes as the “Fear Gauge”, the VIX tracks market participants’ expectations for future S&P 500 Index volatility. In other words, the VIX provides information about the prospect for fluctuations (up or down) in equity markets. When the VIX…
23Nov
Inflation Hedges: A Look at the Record
TO DOWNLOAD A PRINTABLE VERSION (CLICK HERE) Many of our clients are concerned about a rise in inflation. This note takes a hard look at various supposed inflation hedges. We will look at stocks, bonds, REITs, gold, commodities, T-bills and TIPS: the answer may surprise you. I don’t see one size fits all answers to…
19Nov
Astor Weekly Economic Review – 85 – Questions about Inflation?
Astor CIO John Eckstein and Research Associate Nick Porter break down the latest price measures and the Fed’s options for addressing high inflation. AIM-11/19/21-OP493
19Nov
November 2021 Update on the U.S. Economy
The month of October brought plenty of exciting macroeconomic data to discuss. Despite the fervor around the recent inflation print (which we’ll delve into below), our reading of the U.S. economy is still quite strong. The Astor Economic Index has ticked down slightly from the middle of the year but remains at an above average…
15Oct
October 2021 Update on the U.S. Economy
The Astor Economic Index moderated slightly in September after several months of steading readings, perhaps suggesting the peak of output growth during the post-pandemic boom is behind us. Nonetheless, the AEI remains consistent with a strong economic state: we delve into some of the numbers below. Part of the story behind the AEI’s…
12Oct
Astor Investment Management Commodity Review
2021 has seen equity and fixed income valuations very rich by traditional standards. As demand roars back and supply chains remain constrained, commodities have increasingly been in the limelight as an alternative source of return. Indeed, many commodities have enjoyed a spectacular rise in price throughout 2021 which creates a question of whether there is…
28Sep
Astor Weekly Economic Review – Episode 80 -The Astor Research Team Dives into the Fed’s Promise of Tightening
Growth is still strong and we should have seen the peak behind us and now we have these on-going questions about time constraints and price pressures in the economy. Fed is talking about tapering, reducing the pace in treasuries and agency securities. The indication of when this is going to happen is November – the…
15Sep
September 2021 Update on the U.S. Economy
The Astor Economic Index ended the month of August essentially unchanged from the last several months, a level consistent with strong economic growth domestically, despite headwinds from the Delta variant. We discuss labor market developments below and delve into some of the dynamics surrounding the current inflation debate. Non-farm payrolls disappointed strongly to the downside…
3Sep
Astor Weekly Economic Review- Episode 79 -Payroll Friday
This week- Astor CEO, Rob Stein, and CIO, John Eckstein make sense of the Employment Situation Report and it’s implications- the FED in particular. Rob Stein shares his thoughts on the Fed’s actions coming out of Jackson Hole Economic Symposium and answers John’s question, “Is the latest labor market news going to affect the Fed’s…
31Aug
Rob Stein on Millennials and Money with Angela Miles
https://astorim.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/Rob-Stein-Millennials-and-Money.mp4 AIM-8/31/21-OP445
3Aug
Astor Weekly Economic Review – Episode 77 – Boon or Swoon Economy
Astor CIO John Eckstein and Nick Porter eyeball the latest numbers from from labor, housing and industry. Is the economy still booming or did June produce a swoon that will affect the outcomes moving forward? AIM-8/2/21-OP429
14Jul
Astor Q2 2021 Strategy Update Recording with CEO & Founder, Rob Stein.
Recording of Astor’s Q2 2021 Strategy Update call with CEO & Founder, Rob Stein.
18May
My Compelling Reasons for Hyper-Inflation and Potential Impacts
Inflation itself is not a rally-killer for stocks. Rather, I believe it is the interest rate differential between a risk-free return against the risk on stock prices and dividend yield. I think that spread has favored stocks for some time and very aggressively for the past 12 months. As rates rise and stocks appreciate, I…
25Feb
Rob Stein Update on Inflation
As inflation expectations begin to accelerate and long rates begin to rise, I thought I would review my thoughts on inflation and rates from previous articles and the Outlook 2021. One of the basic definitions of inflation is “too much money chasing too few goods.” With the mailbox money from 2020 increasing money supply and…
17Mar
A 10-Step Response Plan To The Overall Health & Economic Emergency
As state and federal governments weigh the most effective responses to COVID-19 and the economic disruption resulting from efforts to flatten the contagion curve, it is clearly time for some new approaches. The old playbook of the Federal Reserve adding liquidity is unlikely to have an immediate impact. As was written in Astor’s Outlook 2020:…
17Mar
March Update on the U.S. Economy
The Astor Economic Index declined throughout 2019 to a level consistent with approximately average economic growth, and as a result, Astor entered the month of March with substantially less ‘risk’ exposure compared to 12-months ago. As the COVID-19 pandemic progresses throughout the United States and the world, our approach to investing mirrors that of the…
10Mar
Astor Investment Management Wins Two 2020 Lipper Fund Awards
CHICAGO (March 6, 2020) – Astor Investment Management LLC is pleased to announce it is being honored with two 2020 Refinitiv Lipper Fund Awards in the United States. TO READ OUR FULL PRESS RELEASE, CLICK HERE