Category: News

38 posts categorized as "News"

12Mar

March 2021 Update on the U.S. Economy

No news is good news, at least as the U.S. economy is concerned in its current state of slowly animating suspension. The Astor Economic Index has been range bound at a level approximating above average growth for several months and ended the month of February essentially unchanged. The labor market picked up some steam, with…

Continue Reading

25Feb

Rob Stein Update on Inflation

As inflation expectations begin to accelerate and long rates begin to rise, I thought I would review my thoughts on inflation and rates from previous articles and the Outlook 2021. One of the basic definitions of inflation is “too much money chasing too few goods.” With the mailbox money from 2020 increasing money supply and…

Continue Reading

22Feb

Rob Stein 2020 Review – ADA

Recording of Astor’s Q3 2020 call with CEO & Founder, Rob Stein. Rob Stein Q4 Review 2020 from Astor Investment Management on Vimeo.   AIM-2/18/21-VP307

Continue Reading

16Feb

February 2021 Update on the U.S. Economy

The theme in economic pundit circles during the month of January was short-term stagnation, and the Astor Economic Index certainly agrees, remaining essentially unchanged from where in began the year and in growth territory.  As in prior months, the economy remains under substantial restrictions that are trending broadly towards easing, and we expect to see…

Continue Reading

16Feb

Astor’s 2021 Outlook

2020 is destined to become one of those years that will be remembered just by mentioning two digits, much like ’87, ’01, and ’08 have become synonymous with the events of each respective year. All someone will need to say is “remember ’20,” and we’ll know everything that number entails—from the pandemic to the presidency,…

Continue Reading

22Jan

January 2021 Update on the U.S. Economy

With COVID-19 still spreading throughout the United States, the Astor Economic Index continued its weakening trend in the month of December, ending the quarter down from its peak several months ago but still well into solid growth territory. This month’s non-farm payroll came in about as expected with a loss of 140,000 jobs month over…

Continue Reading

4Jan

2020 in Retrospect

Coming into 2020 the U.S. economy, as we measure it with the Astor Economic Index®, was growing about trend, though weaker than the pace of 2018. The U.S. consumer was the true pillar, with the unemployment rate sitting at 3.5%. U.S. Manufacturing had peaked in the second half of 2018, declining steadily through 2019 as…

Continue Reading

18Dec

December 2020 Update on the U.S. Economy

As we have said before in this blog, as goes the pandemic, so goes the U.S. economy. The Astor Economic Index reflects this reality, ticking down in November from its 2020 highs, although still in solid growth territory. In November we noted that the impact of the second wave of COVID-19 and concomitant lockdowns would…

Continue Reading

20Nov

Three Things That Will Matter in 2021

With the election behind us and increased visibility of life after the pandemic, I’ve had time to reflect on the economy, the markets and the impact of responses to the economic shut down. Economists often get stuck in the theoretical or the academic reasons for market movements and economies cycles, often missing “the forest for…

Continue Reading

18Nov

Market Cap Trends – Q4 2020

• Mega cap stocks have driven domestic stock market performance, by in large, in 2020. Might that be changing? • Recent trends have seen changes in market segment performance such as small cap and value index performance • Visibility into a COVID-19 vaccine may support a broader benefit for stocks, not just a few concentrated…

Continue Reading

17Nov

November 2020 Update on the U.S. Economy

The Astor Economic Index® (“AEI”) improved again in October, ending the month higher once again and at a level generally consistent with a strong economic state. Recall that the AEI is driven by changes in economic output, rather than the outright level, which we believe is more germane to the near-term trajectory for risk assets….

Continue Reading

21Oct

Rob Stein Q3 2020

Recording of Astor’s Q3 2020 call, where CEO/Founder, Rob Stein discusses the current economic environment, gives an update on Astor’s portfolios, and holds Q&A. AIM-10/21/20-OP194

Continue Reading

14Oct

Q3 2020 Economic Update

This year has had no shortage of twists and turns and the third quarter of 2020 has been no different. The end of Q3 provides an opportunity to look back at the path of the Astor Economic Index® (“AEI”) and our flagship Dynamic Allocation (“ADA”) strategy over the course of the past three months in…

Continue Reading

10Sep

September 2020 Update on the U.S. Economy

With COVID-19 largely on the decline across the United States, and much of the economy returning to some semblance of normal, we have begun to see the rough outlines of the economic shutdown’s long-term impacts and implications for recovery. This blog has previously questioned the extent to which the shutdown would have persistent effects on…

Continue Reading

13Aug

August 2020 Update on the U.S. Economy

The Astor Economic Index® has had a substantial improvement since the previous nonfarm payrolls report and is now at a level consistent with about average U.S. economic strength. Remarkably, this reading coincides with the AEI’s pre-COVID levels. As the chart below depicts, the AEI has effectively captured the twists and turns of the economy during…

Continue Reading

31Jul

Rob Stein Q2 2020

Recording of Astor’s Q2 2020 call, where CEO/Founder, Rob Stein discusses the current economic environment, gives an update on Astor’s portfolios, and holds Q&A.

Continue Reading

14Jul

July 2020 Update on the U.S. Economy

As the pandemic goes, so goes the United States’ economy. To the extent that public health measures move in lockstep with the pace of COVID-19, this month’s data reflects that reality. With restrictions easing in most states, macroeconomic fundamentals have improved accordingly. Of course, as epidemiological data shows, the pandemic is far from having run…

Continue Reading

12Jun

June 2020 Update on the U.S. Economy

On balance, the macroeconomic data released last month indicate a turning point in the rate of change of economic trends resulting from the pandemic. In some instances, data suggest an outright reversal in the underlying trend. Accordingly, the Astor Economic Index (AEI) stabilized this month at a level historically consistent with poor macroeconomic fundamentals after…

Continue Reading

27May

Rob Stein, CEO of Astor Investment Management on Government Spending and the Uncertainty in the Market in 2020 on Business First AM with Angela Miles

Watch Astor’s CEO and Founder, Rob Stein, on Economy Watch as he discusses government spending and the uncertainity in the market in 2020. AIM-6/29/20-VP75 The Astor Economic Index® is a proprietary index created by Astor Investment Management LLC. It represents an aggregation of various economic data points: including output and employment indicators. The Astor Economic…

Continue Reading

20May

May 2020 Update on the U.S. Economy

As expected, April brought new lows in the data we monitor, and with it our first full view of the economic impact of the pandemic. In many cases, the data are historical and record breaking. However, several green shoots have begun to emerge, although it is much too early to call the beginning of the…

Continue Reading

All information contained herein is for informational purposes only. This is not a solicitation to offer investment advice or services in any state where to do so would be unlawful. Analysis and research are provided for informational purposes only, not for trading or investing purposes. All opinions expressed are as of the date of publication and subject to change. Astor and its affiliates are not liable for the accuracy, usefulness or availability of any such information or liable for any trading or investing based on such information. Please refer to Astor’s Form ADV Part 2 for additional information regarding fees, risks and services.