Category: Commentary/Video
132 posts categorized as "Commentary/Video"
16Oct
What Recession? Why the Sky Can’t Fall in the New Economic Reality
The recession is coming, the recession is coming – or, maybe not. Even as the market marches steadily higher, and the economic data print is consistently at or above the level indicating economic growth, the cry being heard is that a recession is coming.[i] Some even predict that the next downturn will be as severe…
11Oct
October update on the US economy
Our proprietary Astor Economic Index® is still showing strong growth in the US economy. The index is currently at the bottom of a fairly narrow range it has been in during 2018. The economy has thus far proved itself resilient to escalating trade tensions and steadily rising interest rates. Has the Fed shifted According to…
9Oct
Emerging Market Turbulence: Here to Stay?
Normalizing US rates and higher oil prices have begun to expose persistent macroeconomic imbalances in emerging markets. As returns begin to look more appealing in developed markets, we expect elevated levels of volatility to continue in emerging markets, especially those with large twin deficits, high external borrowing needs, reliance on portfolio flows for financing and…
12Sep
Why the Economy Provides the Right Roadmap for Mitigating Risk
Click on the image above or click here to download the PDF.
11Sep
September update on the US economy
Our proprietary Astor Economic Index® is still showing strong growth in the US economy. The index is currently in the middle of a fairly narrow range it has been in during 2018. The economy has thus far proved itself resilient to escalating trade tensions. Various of the regional federal reserve banks produce nowcasting…
24Aug
Which sectors are defensive?
As the current recovery ages and trade tensions garner headlines, a money manager’s thoughts turn to defensive sectors. But how have the defensive sectors actually done in recent recessions? We examine the record in this post. For an investment manager, there is an obvious appeal in knowing how sectors of the economy perform in recessions…
9Aug
August update on the US economy
Our proprietary Astor Economic Index® is still showing strong growth in the US economy. The index is currently at near top of the fairly narrow range it has been in during 2018. The labor market continues to add more jobs than is required to keep up with the natural growth of population. We can see…
18Jul
Astor Investment Management CIO, John Eckstein, on Bond Markets
Play Video All information contained herein is for informational purposes only. This is not a solicitation to offer investment advice or services in any state where to do so would be unlawful. Analysis and research are provided for informational purposes only, not for trading or investing. Astor and its affiliates are not liable for…
12Jul
If the yield curve talks, should investors listen?
A favorite indicator among economists for predicting recessions is the yield curve—the difference between long-term rates and short-term rates. As of this writing, the difference between 10-year Treasuries and 2-year notes is 0.30%, a decrease from just under 1% a year ago. When this relationship flattens and goes below zero, it’s believed that the economy is likely…
10Jul
July Update on the US Economy
Our proprietary Astor Economic Index® is still showing strong growth in the US economy. The index is currently near the top of the fairly narrow range it has been in the last twelve months. The labor market continues to add more jobs than is required to keep up with the natural growth of population and…
27Jun
Does an Inverted Term Structure Lead to Recession?
Much has been made of the flattening yield curve trend that has developed over the past year or so. Yield curves that are inverted, with short-term rates higher than long-term rates, have historically preceded recessions in the United States, and so it is useful to explore the term structure as a potential signal of economic downturns. To continue reading, click…
22Jun
The “voice” of the economy and what it’s really saying
The buzz around the internet these days has been a computer-generated voice and whether it’s saying Yanni or Laurel. As it turned out, the computer was saying both, and the difference in auditory perception was due to the frequency of the playback and how well people’s ears perceive different frequencies. To continue reading click here.
6Jun
June update on the US economy
Our proprietary Astor Economic Index® is still showing strong growth in the US economy. The index is currently near the top of the fairly narrow range it has been in the last twelve months. The labor market continues to add more jobs than is required to keep up with the natural growth of population and…
10May
May update on the US economy
Our proprietary Astor Economic Index® is still showing solid growth in the US economy. The index is currently near the top of the fairly narrow range it has been in the last twelve-month range. The labor market continues to add more jobs than is required to keep up with the natural growth of population and…
1May
Q1 GDP first look, and more…
The initial read on GDP was released on 4/27/18 and it was better than expected (2.3% reported vs. 2.0% expected). Although this report is lower than the pace set in the previous 3 quarters, I believe the Fed will continue on the path of raising rates. Concern of rising rates will continue into the…
27Apr
24Apr
What? Me Worry?
The first quarter of 2018 is ‘in the books’ and investors may still feel a little woozy from the ups and downs they experienced. The volatility in Q1 seemingly reminded investors what ‘fear’ feels like and, in my opinion, the financial news mediums started to help investors find the fear they were looking for. To…
24Apr
Astor Investment Management CEO Robert Stein on Economic Data
Click here to watch our CEO Rob Stein on Morning Trade Live! All information contained herein is for informational purposes only. This is not a solicitation to offer investment advice or services in any state where to do so would be unlawful. Analysis and research are provided for informational purposes only, not for trading or…
11Apr
U.S.-China Trade Wars: Talk and Market Impact
Your diligent economic blogger is struggling to keep up with the news on the trade war front. Last week the US and China traded threats of additional proposed trade sanctions – to be imposed after the still-theoretical initial set of mutual tariffs announced earlier in April. Recall that the world’s two largest economies will soon…
14Feb
Market Questions: Less Why, More What
Given the stock market’s 10% drop over about the past two weeks, the question we’re left with now is less about “why” and more about “what.” What to do from here? First, we must keep in mind that the S&P 500 has appreciated by almost 30% in three years with little volatility and only minor…