Category: Commentary/Video
237 posts categorized as "Commentary/Video"
21Jan
Inflation and The Fed
Inflation and the Fed is the topic of this week’s podcast. Plus: why January’s data may be the worst in months. With Chief Investment Officer, John Eckstein, and Research Associate, Nick Porter. AIM-1/21/22-OP523
15Jan
January 2022 Update on the U.S. Economy
As usual, we’ll be looking at recent economic data this month, but we’ll also expand on some of the themes we’ve seen this year and look ahead to our base case for 2022. It’s worth noting that our portfolio decisions are made by the current state of the U.S. economy, rather than any forecast, but…
13Jan
Payroll Numbers 2022
Topics Covered: Disappointing payroll number made up for by a substantial household number When adjusting the household survey to match the same concepts as the establishment survey there has been a relatively big gap over the last 1 1/2 years and that gap is closing quickly Less acceleration this quarter than the previous quarter Payroll numbers…
17Dec
Fed’s Latest Policy Shift: Astor Economic Week in Review
Fed Chairman, Jerome Powell, press conference summarized by Astor CIO, John Eckstein, and Research Associate, Nick Porter AIM-12/17/21-OP505
16Dec
The Logical Economist – Rob Stein
Rob Stein, Former Federal Reserve Analyst and CEO/Founder of Astor Investment Management discusses his views on potential unintended, permanent economic outcomes from the pandemic, super inflation and what investors can expect over the next 1-5 years.
14Dec
Inflation Isn’t The Biggest Problem
Is the recent spike in inflation data and recent price moves in many products and commodities transitory? Is the reopening of supply chain disruptions going to relieve shortages? When is the Fed going to act? These questions are being debated more than ever, with both sides digging in on their views. To be honest, I…
7Dec
December 2021 Update on the U.S. Economy
Another month has passed as we hurtle to the New Year, and we find the Astor Economic Index at a similar level as in weeks past. In aggregate, the AEI (and our) view of the U.S. economy is that of continued strength, with a vigorous labor market and consumer demand. We discuss some of the…
29Nov
The “Fear Gauge”
The Cboe Volatility Index® (herein “VIX®” or “VIX® Index”) has become something of a household name. Known sometimes as the “Fear Gauge”, the VIX tracks market participants’ expectations for future S&P 500 Index volatility. In other words, the VIX provides information about the prospect for fluctuations (up or down) in equity markets. When the VIX…
23Nov
Inflation Hedges: A Look at the Record
TO DOWNLOAD A PRINTABLE VERSION (CLICK HERE) Many of our clients are concerned about a rise in inflation. This note takes a hard look at various supposed inflation hedges. We will look at stocks, bonds, REITs, gold, commodities, T-bills and TIPS: the answer may surprise you. I don’t see one size fits all answers to…
19Nov
Astor Weekly Economic Review – 85 – Questions about Inflation?
Astor CIO John Eckstein and Research Associate Nick Porter break down the latest price measures and the Fed’s options for addressing high inflation. AIM-11/19/21-OP493
19Nov
November 2021 Update on the U.S. Economy
The month of October brought plenty of exciting macroeconomic data to discuss. Despite the fervor around the recent inflation print (which we’ll delve into below), our reading of the U.S. economy is still quite strong. The Astor Economic Index has ticked down slightly from the middle of the year but remains at an above average…
9Nov
Astor Weekly Economic Review – 84 – CEO, Rob Stein, and CIO, John Eckstein, break down Friday’s payroll number and how it will affect the Fed’s new plan for ending quantitative easing
1) Strong Jobs Report 2) Current State of Economy 3) Fed Ending Quantitative Easing AIM-11/10/21-OP485
28Oct
Astor Weekly Economic Review – 83 – A Special Episode Focusing on Inflation
1) Inflation #’s 2) Causes for Inflation 3) Possible Solutions for Inflation 4) Recent Academic Thinking around Inflation AIM-10/27/21-OP474
15Oct
October 2021 Update on the U.S. Economy
The Astor Economic Index moderated slightly in September after several months of steading readings, perhaps suggesting the peak of output growth during the post-pandemic boom is behind us. Nonetheless, the AEI remains consistent with a strong economic state: we delve into some of the numbers below. Part of the story behind the AEI’s…
13Oct
Astor Weekly Economic Review – 82 – CEO, Rob Stein, and CIO, John Eckstein, Break Down the Weak Employment Report
Topics Discussed: Labor Market Rate of Improvement is Slowing Divergence between Labor Market Surveys New Labor Market Trend ? Fed Tapering Jobless Claims PMI, CPI, and PCE Reports
12Oct
Astor Investment Management Commodity Review
2021 has seen equity and fixed income valuations very rich by traditional standards. As demand roars back and supply chains remain constrained, commodities have increasingly been in the limelight as an alternative source of return. Indeed, many commodities have enjoyed a spectacular rise in price throughout 2021 which creates a question of whether there is…
15Sep
September 2021 Update on the U.S. Economy
The Astor Economic Index ended the month of August essentially unchanged from the last several months, a level consistent with strong economic growth domestically, despite headwinds from the Delta variant. We discuss labor market developments below and delve into some of the dynamics surrounding the current inflation debate. Non-farm payrolls disappointed strongly to the downside…
31Aug
Rob Stein on Millennials and Money with Angela Miles
https://astorim.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/Rob-Stein-Millennials-and-Money.mp4 AIM-8/31/21-OP445
20Aug
Astor Weekly Economic Review – Episode 78 – The Long Slow Road to Recovery
Astor Chief Investment Officer John Eckstein and Nick Porter wade into the numbers of the economic rebound and the pace to return to pre-pandemic levels. The road back seems to be a long one, but they explore where encouraging signs can be found. AIM-8/19/21-OP442
13Aug
August 2021 Update on the U.S. Economy
The month of July saw further signs of a durable expansion across sectors in the United States, and encouragingly, continued improvement in the labor market. Our nowcast of the U.S. economy, the Astor Economic Index®, followed in kind, resuming its climb from the beginning of the year and at its highest level since January 2019….