Category: Commentary
69 posts categorized as "Commentary"
9Sep
September 2022 Update on the U.S. Economy
The U.S. economy has proven resilient to firming monetary policy so far this year. The Astor Economic Index® (AEI) is at a level consistent with below-average growth but above outright recession. This is consistent with other nowcasts and forecasts of the U.S. economy: Bloomberg consensus for Q3 GDP growth is at 1.4%, down a tad…
17Aug
August 2022 Update on the U.S. Economy
July was a very interesting month for economic data, with several of the series that we watch closely at Astor pointing in different directions. The Astor Economic Index®, our attempt to summarize these data points, ended the month in below-average growth territory and somewhat softer than the month before. The labor market has been a…
15Aug
Latest inflation news and the outlook for the Fed
Astor’s CIO, John Eckstein, and research associate, Nick Porter, deep dive into the latest inflation news and the outlook for the Fed.
9Aug
Gauging the U.S. Consumer
Employment has been resilient to inflation, rising rates and slowing growth trends, but for how much longer? Consumer financial situations have been impacted, reducing savings rates and increasing borrowing levels… Factors to help the economy regain its footing may not be helpful for the U.S. consumer in the near term… For context, let’s quickly walk…
8Aug
What does the latest payroll report tell us about inflation and the fed?
Astor’s CEO, Rob Stein, and CIO, John Eckstein, discuss the latest payroll report and what it tells us about inflation and the fed.
3Aug
Exchange Rate Drivers
Recent Dollar Trends The U.S. dollar is very much in the limelight of late, with the greenback relentlessly climbing against its developed market peers. The euro to dollar exchange rate (EUR/USD) is closely watched as a gauge of global sentiment and is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world. The euro recently touched…
25Jul
Fed preview and inflation outlook
Federal Reserve preview and inflation outlook with CIO, John Eckstein, and Research Associate, Nick Porter.
15Jul
July 2022 Update on the U.S. Economy
The U.S. economy is at an interesting crossroad: the labor market is showing continued strength despite weakening output, burgeoning inflation, and an increasingly hawkish Fed. The Astor Economic Index has taken the side of the naysayers, posting consecutive declines for the last 11 months. The index now lies somewhere in the below-average to weak range….
8Jul
You Can’t Buy Love and You Can’t Buy An Expansion
As the markets hit that magical percent drawdown number, market experts tell us we are in a bear market. If only they told us sooner… Inflation was not transitory after all, and the Fed needed to react which led to the typical result from raising rates quickly… Again, who could predict that mailing money to…
1Jul
Is a recession coming?
Astor’s CIO, John Eckstein, and Research Associate, Nick Porter, discuss if a recession is on its way using the latest economic data.
11Jun
Federal Reserve outlook given yesterday’s inflation numbers
Astor’s CIO, John Eckstein, and Research Associate, Nick Porter, discuss the Fed’s outlook after yesterday’s inflation numbers.
8Jun
June 2022 Update on the U.S. Economy
The Astor Economic Index crossed the Rubicon (or perhaps just the Delaware) in May, ending the month just below the 0 line and at a level consistent with (barely) below average economic growth. Note that the AEI is suggesting that the pace of growth in the US has slowed, but is not yet at a…
1Jun
Is a recession likely?
Astor’s CIO, John Eckstein, and Research Associate, Nick Porter break down the latest economic data to help them decide whether or not a recession is likely to occur.
19May
Market Commentary: Super-Hyper Inflation, So What’s the Plan?
Wednesday (5/18) was a day of turmoil in equity markets with the S&P 500 down about 4% as investors sold risk assets for the safety of government bonds. I personally wouldn’t jump into bonds for the long term at this point, but yesterday investors needed to do something and bonds were the easiest choice. Markets…
12May
Market Commentary: It’s all about the Fed… Still
The markets have had a challenging time the past few weeks, quickly retracing back to the levels of a year ago. Perspective is always important, but the Fed’s perspective is essential! As I said at the beginning of the year, it’s all about the Fed and how they navigate interest rates. The Fed got it wrong when…
29Apr
Breaking down the latest GDP report and the outlook for the Fed in this week’s Astor Economic Week in Review
CIO, John Eckstein, and Research Partner, Nick Porter, dive deep into the latest GDP report and outlook for the Fed.
18Apr
The Strength of the Economy at the start of Q2
CIO, John Eckstein, and Research Associate, Nick Porter, discuss Inflation, CPI, PPI Final Demand, and the Fed. AIM-4/18/22-OP560
7Apr
April 2022 Update on the U.S. Economy
The Astor Economic Index continued its slide in March, consistent with our reading of a cooling but still strong economy. The domestic macroeconomic outlook is at an interesting crossroads, with persistent inflation, negative real wages, and high input costs on one hand, and very strong labor market dynamics, corporate earnings, and solid output growth on…
5Apr
Employment Report Discussion
Discussion Topics: Overall Strength of Economy Jobs Report Fed Moves AIM-4/4/22-OP554
4Apr
Commodity Market Update – Q1 2022
Many of the most visible commodities – energies and grains – appreciated a great deal during the first quarter as shown in the charts below for eight of the more well known commodity contracts. There are macro factors both boosting and restraining commodity prices: On the bullish for commodities side: Shift in the composition…