Category: Commentary
70 posts categorized as "Commentary"
11May
Employment Trends meets Federal Reserve Decisions
Astor’s CEO Rob Stein and CIO John Eckstein explore the interplay between employment trends and Federal Reserve decisions. MAS-M-380952-2023-05-08
27Apr
Inflation & Duration: Navigating Rising Fixed Income Volatility
One can be forgiven for looking back on Fixed Income markets in the period between the Global Financial Crisis and the pandemic with something approaching fondness. The Great Recession and the period thereafter were dominated by concerns about the lower zero bound for rates and the need to stretch duration to get anything approaching reasonable…
19Apr
April 2023 Update on the U.S. Economy
The data for the month of March showed a slight cooling of the U.S. economy but wasn’t fundamentally view changing for the domestic near-term trajectory. The Astor Economic Index® stayed in the same range that it began in 2023, at a level consistent with below-average growth. One of the big puzzles of the current macroeconomic…
24Mar
March 2023 Update on the U.S. Economy
Harold Wilson, the former Prime Minister of the United Kingdom, said (probably apocryphally) that “a week is a long time in politics”. In economics, a day can prove to be a lifetime, as recent events have shown. Banking sector stress over the past week has led to a dramatic repricing across the fixed-income world, and…
21Mar
Banking Crisis 2.0
As the recent bank failures hit the news wires the headlines became sensational, with some commentators claiming that the system was imploding. Ironically, just weeks ago, the banking system was characterized as ‘bulletproof’. To be clear, this is not 2008. That was a true banking and financial crisis with a complete breakdown of the banking…
15Mar
What does the Latest Employment Report implies to Fed?
Astor’s CEO, Rob Stein, and CIO John Eckstein analyze the latest employment report and discuss what it implies to the Fed. MAS-M-360082-2023-03-14
10Mar
Get up-to-date on Economic Conditions in the U.S.
Astor’s CIO, John Eckstein, and Portfolio Manager/ VP – Research Nicholas Porter get you up-to-date on the economic conditions in the U.S. MAS-M-357438-2023-03-07
14Feb
February 2023 Update on the U.S. Economy
The U.S. economy is not in want of compelling data points of late, with prints in all sorts of indicators well outside of historical norms. The challenge, of course, is that many of these series are in open contradiction. For its part, the Astor Economic Index® (AEI) indicates an economy that is cooling (or has…
18Jan
January 2023 Update on the U.S. Economy
Another year is past us, and 2023 has begun with the promise of new macroeconomic trends and data to digest. The Astor Economic Index® ended the year up slightly from months prior but still at a level consistent with below-average growth. The key questions going into 2023 are the persistence of strong labor market trends,…
17Jan
The Case for Active Fixed Income
The Case for Active Fixed Income: The End of the Era In Which Rates Only Went Down Fixed income had been deemed a dull affair for much of the past four decades. It was considered by many as something of an afterthought compared to the time many spent on the minute handcrafting and tweaking of…
13Jan
FAQ 2022 – 2023
A Q&A into what we saw and where we are going. This frequently asked questions guide is an overview of 2022 and a look into 2023. CLICK HERE OR ON THE IMAGE BELOW TO READ.
20Dec
Outlook for inflation and the Fed
Astor’s CIO John Eckstein and Research Associate Nick Porter share their thoughts on inflation and the Fed. MAS-M-330565-2022-12-16
7Dec
December 2022 Update on the U.S. Economy
The Astor Economic Index® declined further in the month of November to a level typically associated with a weak economic state. The economy is in an interesting position, with the labor market humming along, but some soft data point to substantial weakness in manufacturing. The latest non-farm payroll was interesting, and it’s worth going beyond…
18Nov
Gauging Fed and Market Reaction to CPI
Astor’s CIO John Eckstein and Research Associate Nick Porter share their thoughts on the Fed and Market Reaction to CPI. MAS-M-321021-2022-11-14
18Nov
November 2022 Update on the U.S. Economy
The Astor Economic Index®, our nowcast of the U.S. economy, is essentially unchanged from the prior month at a level consistent with below-average economic output. Nonetheless, the intervening period has had several significant data prints, which we discuss below. In sum, recent trends suggest that the window to a soft(er) landing is now more open…
19Oct
October 2022 Update on the U.S. Economy
September brought little in the way of relief for those looking for a Fed pivot, and the Astor Economic Index® remained constrained at a below-average reading. As in recent months, the U.S. labor market is somewhat at odds with the global economy and other domestic data prints, with job gains elevated despite softening purchasing manager…
18Oct
The Latest Inflation News and Outlook
Astor’s CIO, John Eckstein, and Research Associate, Nick Porter discuss the latest inflation news and outlook. MAS-M-310193-2022-10-17
11Oct
Latest Unemployment Report and The Fed Outlook
Astor’s CEO, Rob Stein, and CIO, John Eckstein, discuss the latest unemployment report and the Fed outlook. MAS-M-308024-2022-10-11
3Oct
The UK Meltdown
Astor’s research team throws an emergency podcast on the UK Meltdown.
22Sep
Breaking down the latest Fed meeting
Astor’s CIO, John Eckstein, and Research Associate, Nick Porter, break down the latest fed meeting.