Date: October 2014

9 posts in October 2014


Link roundup

Here are some recent market-related posts which I have enjoyed The Economist on The Dangers of Deflation FT Alphaville:  stop waiting for the great rotation into equities University of Texas’ Nathen Swem: Information in Financial Markets: Who Gets It First? The Richmond Fed on why young people seem to hold “too few” stocks Duke’s Campbell…

Continue Reading


Weekly Drive: October 20th to October 24th, 2014

Halloween is here! There are a few more days to buy candy, carve a pumpkin, and figure out what costume to wear. Hope everyone has a safe and fun time on Friday. THE KEY ECONOMIC LANDMARKS WE PASSED 1. Housing Existing Home Sales: 5.17M vs 5.10M est. New Home Sales: 467K vs 470K est. News…

Continue Reading


FOMC preview

I am expecting little news from the FOMC this week. The committee should take the final tranche of QE off, which might have been an unfavorable surprise amid the financial market volatility two weeks ago, but which is likely to go unnoticed this week. Some of the regional presidents have been advocating their views towards…

Continue Reading


World PMIs (October 2014, preliminary) – steady as she goes

The October preliminary Markit PMIs for major economies were somewhat stronger, on balance, than September’s. The US is off its peak but still quite strong. The Eurozone recovered a bit, thanks to Germany is my guess, though the reading is still around the 50% expansion/contraction line. In Asia, Japan’s manufacturing PMI posted solid progress and…

Continue Reading


Weekly Drive: October 14th to October 17th, 2014

THE KEY ECONOMIC LANDMARKS WE PASSED 1. Retail Sales: -0.3% vs. -0.1% est. A bit of a bummer report but also not completely unexpected considering sales were up 0.6% in August. Excluding autos, sales were still down -0.2% for the month. A look at Figure 1 shows weakness across many categories, including gasoline stations and…

Continue Reading


Worrying about the Wrong Things

Fever. Chills. Cold sweats. Nausea. Ebola? No, these are the classic signs of a market-induced malaise caused by rampant fear and worry over the wrong things. The market, which seemed to be itching for a downturn, scared itself into one over a rash of unconnected symptoms.  From Ebola fever (the media-induced variety), to concerns over…

Continue Reading


Don’t Panic

The recent stock sell-off certainly has our attention. Yesterday, October 14th, the S&P 500 closed about 6.6% off its high, set only a month ago. And writing before the opening of October 15th, it looks like another bad day. As always, there is a chance of a further stock market decline, but we think the…

Continue Reading


Weekly Drive: September 29th to October 10th, 2014

I am a week behind so it is time to catch up. Economic reports were sparse last week so much of the discussion there will be focused on the week prior. Financial markets will be covered for both periods. THE KEY ECONOMIC LANDMARKS WE PASSED 1. Nonfarm Payrolls: 248K vs. 215K est. We got the…

Continue Reading


New Astor post on Inflation hedges

We have a new post on The mixed record of inflation hedges.  You might be surprised by the best choice!

Continue Reading