Date: July 2014

6 posts in July 2014


World PMI Update: Weakness in Europe?

Manufacturing growth throughout the world increased at a solid, if unspectacular pace in July, the preliminary releases of the Markit PMIs show. The chart shows manufacturing PMIs across many of the more important countries in the world, the rightmost column, July 2014, is the preliminary data released July 24. The highlights of the July data:…

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Yellen testimony confirms view of labor market slack

Fed Chair Janet Yellen gave her semi-annual report on monetary policy to the Senate today. Its content is consistent with our interpretations of both monetary policy and the labor market. The key phrase from our standpoint is: “we currently anticipate that even after employment and inflation are near mandate-consistent levels, economic conditions may, for some…

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Secondary labor market indicators show improvement, slack

From time to time we also like to highlight some secondary labor market indicators to gain a deeper insight into the economy. The chart below shows both labor market improvement as well as continuing slack. The red line shows the quit rate, the percentage of the labor force quitting each month. It is at its…

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A clever example of the difficulty of applying statistical models to the real world

Guardian columnist Andrew Steele blends soccer, math and finance in answering the question How shocking was Brazil’s 7-1 defeat, mathematically speaking?

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Tech stocks weigh on S&P 500: MarketWatch Live Blog ft. Rob Stein

Rob Stein, CEO of Astor Investment Management said that Tuesday’s pullback is mostly due to technicals rather than fundamentals. “When markets reach new peaks, investors tend to take opportunity and lighten up and rebalance. We think the economy is in its mid cycle and has more room to grow. All recent economic data point to…

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