Category: Economic

4 posts categorized as "Economic"

21Jul

Fed Outlook H2 2017

Our proprietary Astor Economic Index┬« is still showing good growth in the US economy. The index improved substantially this month to near its highest levels of the year. The bright spot of the economy continues to be broad labor market improvements for such a late period in the cycle. Direct measures of labor market slack…

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10Dec

The Fed’s Inflation Problem

As 2014 draws to a close the Fed is presented with a problem. Based on recent speeches, a substantial part of the committee seems eager to raise rates. At the same time. some of the Fed’s preferred metrics suggest this may be premature and the market is trapped in between. Market participants are on the…

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21Aug

World PMI update for August – Weakness in Europe

With the flash update for selected Markit PMIs for August, here is our monthly heatmap of worldwide manufacturing PMIs. A few observations: The Markit PMI for the US jumped to its highest level since 2011. While this is an encouraging sign, the link between the Markit measure and the more familiar ISM measure is not…

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20Aug

Fed Watch – Jackson Hole

The Kansas City Fed is hosting its annual Jackson Hole conference this weekend (motto: “interrupting Wall Street vacations since 1978”) . Several times in the last few years we have gotten a good preview of the Fed’s concerns for the year ahead by listening to the Chair’s speech. The last two rounds of Quantitative Easing,…

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