Blog

25Oct

Will September’s Economic Pickup Mean a Reason to Hope for Q4?

Readings on September’s economic output pointed to a bounce back after a disappointment in August. We see these as hopeful signs that the economy, which has been growing slowly but steadily, may be positioned for further gains in Q4 and as we head into the end of the year. ISM Manufacturing A drop in PMI…

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18Oct

Passive Investing Grows in Popularity—But No Panacea

As the investing public, from institutions to individuals, moves away from stock picking and other traditionally active strategies, the beneficiary is passive investing. As the Wall Street Journal reported recently, pension funds, endowments, 401(k) retirement plans, and retail investors are opting increasingly for passive investing that tracks an index. For the three years ended Aug….

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17Oct

Invest Like an Economist—Not a Stock Picker

While the expansion of the $3 trillion ETF industry continues to attract attention for the sheer size and popularity of this investment vehicle, there is yet another reason to favor ETFs—one that’s near to my heart as an economist and investment manager. ETFs allow you think and invest like an economist, and not a stock…

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11Oct

The Tension between Reacting and Overreacting: One Number Does Not Make a Trend

In asset allocation and investing, there is a natural tension between reacting and overreacting. The goal is to ensure you are skilled at the former, while avoiding the latter. At Astor Investment Management, we believe our macroeconomics-based approach to asset allocation helps us react to what we determine to be real change in the economic…

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5Oct

What Are You Looking At?

Fed-watching. Oil prices. The latest geopolitical headline. All sources of anxiety, some of them manufactured. The real question is, what should you be focusing on? Even as markets persist near all-time highs, volatility not indicating too much concern, the subconscious anxiety appears to be growing. As we’ve seen in recent years (and, more recently, during…

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3Oct

THE LIBRARY

Click here for the latest information on our strategies   Listen to a Webinar with CEO and Founder Rob Stein   VIEWPOINTS Revisiting Active:  Is the Trend in Passive Over? Picking the Right Sectors for 2017 Invest like an Economist, not a Stock Picker Look to ETFs as Passive Investing Grows in Popularity What are…

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27Sep

A Mixed Picture – Economic Snapshots

The U.S. economic picture is mixed, with some signs of slowing, along with areas of strength. Let’s take a look at the current snapshots to gain a more comprehensive view. To learn more about The Economic Picture, watch this video.  ISM Manufacturing In our opinion, the most worrying data have been ISM Manufacturing Index readings….

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18Sep

Eyes on the Fed: No Urgency for a Rate Rise

All eyes are on the Federal Reserve this week and the often-discussed question: Will they or won’t they raise rates? Here at Astor, our prediction of what we believe the Fed will do (spoiler alert: we don’t expect a rate rise in September) comes down to two important data points: employment and inflation. To learn…

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9Sep

September Quick Read on the US Economy

I interpreted last month’s economic releases as somewhat weaker.  Forward looking surveys were concerning though consumer spending in the US, the most important single component of GDP, seems to be stable.  Our latest reading for the Astor Economic Index® (“AEI”) is lower over the month, though I see no discernible trend over the last twelve…

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22Aug

Breaking up is not that hard to do: Real Estate (RE) classification

Effective September 1, 2016, the Global Industry Classification Standard (GICS®) will undergo its first major change since its inception in 1999. As a result of the evolving investment landscape, not to mention the global economy, real estate will be carved out of the financial sector. The new 11th sector will primarily contain equity REITs. All…

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12Aug

US Consumer Update: Continuing to Drive Economic Growth

US Consumer Update: Continuing to Drive Economic Growth. Today’s July retail sales report was unchanged but still consistent with the theme of strong consumer resilience continuing in Q3 2016. The headline print at 0% was below Bloomberg expectations of 0.4%.  Digging into the retail categories, it seems auto sales took away demand from other retail…

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10Aug

August Quick Read on the US Economy

My view on the economy is little changed over the month.  I still see the US in an environment of modest economic growth.  A second strong payroll number should quiet the concerns that a period of weakness is beginning. Our latest reading for the Astor Economic Index® (“AEI”) is still near the highest level posted this…

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8Aug

STAR Gazing

We see several themes playing out this year for US domestic sectors, with regards to sector fundamentals, factor selection and the overall direction of the US economy. In our STAR mid-year update, we seek to answer following questions: How have the sector economic fundamentals evolved and how does that guide allocation? So far this year,…

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5Aug

July’s Jobs Number Supportive of Steady Growth

The July Employment report came in with an upside surprise—255,000 jobs created during the month, which was well above expectations of 179,000. Making the jobs picture even rosier was the upward revision for June, to 292,000 from 287,000. Strength in the labor market for June and July has helped bring people back into the workforce,…

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28Jul

The Answer to the Question on Investors’ Minds: Stay the Course

For much of the year, beginning in January when the stock market had its worst start of a new year in history, we’ve been asked periodically why our portfolios haven’t been materially more defensive. The question has arisen at other times during the year, such as in aftermath of the UK’s “Brexit” vote, an event…

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27Jul

U.S. Manufacturing Update

The report on Durable Goods today: New orders for Durable goods decreased 4% in June making this the biggest drop since August 2014. The core measure of new orders for non-defense capital goods excluding aircrafts is up 0.2% in June but still down -3.7% YoY. While the overall new orders decline of 4% looks bad,…

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13Jul

July Quick Read on the US Economy

The economic news improved somewhat from my last update.  The labor market looks more solid than it did a month ago and there are some signs the manufacturing sector may have found it footing.  I believe the Brexit vote will likely have only a modest direct impact on the US, but will make all observers…

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1Jul

June/Q2 Recap: Beyond Market-Rattling Events, the Data Prevail

If you were to look only at where the market closed out June, with the S&P (SPX) at just under 2100 (2098.87 SPX) and compare that to month-end for May (2096.96), you’d see that little had changed. Quarter-to-quarter, the rise from the Q1 close of roughly 2060 to the Q2-end is nearly a 2% gain….

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28Jun

Brexit Fallout Puts Next Round of U.S. Economic Data in Spotlight

As fallout from the Brexit vote continues to be felt—most acutely in currency and confidence—attention on this side of the pond turns to the next round of economic reports for clues as to how the U.S. economy will withstand the inevitable headwinds from the event. From a market perspective, Brexit is best understood as an…

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24Jun

Brexit – First impressions for the US and world economy

This morning our CEO Rob Stein wrote a good overview of the our view of the US after the British vote to leave the EU earlier.  As Rob said, at Astor we are alert for signs of a deteriorating US economy, but we will wait to see them before we further reduce our exposure to…

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All information contained herein is for informational purposes only. This is not a solicitation to offer investment advice or services in any state where to do so would be unlawful. Analysis and research are provided for informational purposes only, not for trading or investing purposes. All opinions expressed are as of the date of publication and subject to change. Astor and its affiliates are not liable for the accuracy, usefulness or availability of any such information or liable for any trading or investing based on such information.”