We believe that diligent analysis of economic data can provide valuable signals for longer-term financial market allocations. Our research is based on economic theory vetted by rigorous analysis and research. History has shown periods of severe economic stress (i.e. recessions) often coincide with substantial drawdowns in the stock market. Astor's analysis seeks to identify signs of weakness as they start to appear. Astor uses the information from its analysis in an attempt to reduce client participation in these drawdowns.
Astor's Investment Philosophy is based on three key beliefs:
Economic Fundamentals Matter.
Stocks Tend to Appreciate.
Active Management is Beneficial.
RESEARCH & PROCESS
Our process is systematic, repeatable, and researched.
Utilizing current economic data and historical trend analysis, Astor seeks to identify the level of appropriate risk for the current environment.
The Investment Committee (IC) formally meets on a monthly basis to review indicators and decide whether portfolio adjustments are warranted.
Once the Investment Committee has made its decision(s) on allocations, it will select appropriate exchange-traded funds (ETFs) to achieve exposure within the strategies.
A Real Time Snapshot of the Current State of the U.S. Economy
Astor's proprietary economic indicator, the AEI aggregates a multiple series of unrelated, real-time economic data points in an attempt to create what we believe is a smoother and more accurate "live read" on the economy. It provides a fundamentally driven, macroeconomics-based solution for determining equity exposure (beta) in portfolios.
Source: Astor; Data: 12/31/1999 – 1/31/2017
The Astor Economic Index® should not be used as the sole determining factor for your investment decisions. There is no
guarantee the index will produce the same results in the future. Please refer to the accompanying disclosures for additional
information regarding the Index.
Average Growth: Astor defines Average Growth as the mean growth rate for the U.S. economy over the preceding 10 year period.
Beta: A quantitative measure of the volatility of a given portfolio, relative to the S&P 500 Index, computed using monthly returns. A beta above 1 is more volatile than the index, while a beta below 1 is less volatile.
Drawdown: A drawdown represents the loss experienced during a period and is calculated as the difference from the peak price to the lowest price in the period.
Recession: A recession as defined by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) is a significant decline in economic activity over a period of time as witnessed by data such as real GDP, real income, employment, industrial production, and retail sales.
Strong Growth: Astor defines Strong Growth as economic activity measured in the upper quartile of the Astor Economic Index® when compared to historical data.
The Astor Economic Index® is a proprietary index created by Astor Investment Management LLC. It represents an aggregation of various economic data points: including output and employment indicators. The Astor Economic Index® is designed to track the varying levels of growth within the U.S. economy by analyzing current trends against historical data. The Astor Economic Index® is not an investable product. When investing, there are multiple factors to consider. The Astor Economic Index® should not be used as the sole determining factor for your investment decisions. The Index is based on retroactive data points and may be subject to hindsight bias. There is no guarantee the Index will produce the same results in the future. The Astor Economic Index® is a tool created and used by Astor. All conclusions are those of Astor and are subject to change. An investment cannot be made in an index.
The S&P 500 Index is an unmanaged composite of 500 large capitalization companies. An investment cannot be made in an index.
S&P 500® is a registered trademark of McGraw Hill Financial.
Astor Economic Index® is a registered trademark of Astor Investment Management LLC.
Astor seeks to achieve its objectives by investing in Exchange-Traded Funds (“ETFs”). An ETF is a type of Investment Company which attempts to achieve a return similar to a set benchmark or index. The value of an ETF is dependent on the value of the underlying assets held. ETFs are subject to investment advisory and other expenses which results in a layering of fees for clients. As a result, your cost of investing in Astor’s strategies will be higher than the cost of investing directly in ETFs and may be higher than investments with similar investment objectives. ETFs may trade for less than their net asset value. Although ETFs are exchanged traded, a lack of demand can prevent daily pricing and liquidity from being available. Investors should carefully consider the investment objectives, risks, charges, and expenses of the ETFs held within Astor’s strategies before investing. This information can be found in each fund’s prospectus. 503161-382